Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. </li>
<li>The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.</li>
<li>Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.</li>
</ul>


Shopping malls are now trading at pre-pandemic levels again and developers and tenants alike are much more upbeat and optimistic about the future. 
The pandemic, alongside competition from e-commerce, has left its mark but this has mostly been a good thing, forcing more proactive management of malls.
Profitability remains a concern but rents are up for some and more efficiencies are being introduced through digitisation.


Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

<ul>
<li>The shopping mall sector in Japan had a reasonable 2021, recovering some of the sales lost in 2020.</li>
<li>While sales remained well down on 2019, this year too recovery has been strong with some stand out months including a 29% rise in May.</li>
<li>The same cannot be said for mall development which has ground to a halt with the lowest number of new malls since records began in 1977.</li>
</ul>


The shopping mall sector in Japan had a reasonable 2021, recovering some of the sales lost in 2020.
While sales remained well down on 2019, this year too recovery has been strong with some stand out months including a 29% rise in May.
The same cannot be said for mall development which has ground to a halt with the lowest number of new malls since records began in 1977.


Shopping Mall Sales up 3.8% in 2021, but Few New Openings

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>29th JULY</strong> - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>85 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 </strong>Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Japan

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. sells and leases condominiums, residential houses, and office buildings.  The Company also manages REITs, real estate development, and consulting services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nomura Real Estate (3231 JP)

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Shopping Mall Sales up 3.8% in 2021, but Few New Openings

Shopping mall development largely stalled in 2021 and, while there will be some rebound, the longer-term trend is for less development and a focus...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Shopping Malls: More Proactive and Disciplined Post-Covid

​Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...

Michael Causton

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Shopping Mall Sales up 3.8% in 2021, but Few New Openings

Shopping mall development largely stalled in 2021 and, while there will be some rebound, the longer-term trend is for less development and a focus...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

Shopping malls rebound to pre-pandemic levels, prompting optimism for the future as better management drives efficiency. This is an in-depth...