Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.</li>
<li>ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.</li>
<li>Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.
ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.
Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

<ul>
<li>Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.</li>
<li>Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.</li>
<li>Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo numbers missed although firm doesn't see impact from higher memory prices this year.
Ibiden to invest Y500bn in new production facilities to capture AI demand.
Defense names should rally after US shoots down an Iranian drone.


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8</li>
<li>Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.</li>
<li>A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability</li>
</ul>


Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female leader since taking office in October 2025, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, triggering a snap general election on February 8
Positions the election as a referendum on her leadership and reflationary agenda.
A two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food and beverages, have raised concerns over fiscal sustainability


Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

<ul>
<li>The recent market tremors sparked by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm, have rattled investors, prompting a wave of selling in AI stocks</li>
<li>The long-term AI narrative remains compelling and the current dip could offer compelling opportunities - we highlight the sell-off in Japanese names</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan’s long-standing commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy is looking increasingly untenable</li>
</ul>


The recent market tremors sparked by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm, have rattled investors, prompting a wave of selling in AI stocks
The long-term AI narrative remains compelling and the current dip could offer compelling opportunities - we highlight the sell-off in Japanese names
The Bank of Japan’s long-standing commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy is looking increasingly untenable


Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Out of Tech Although AH Mixed with Lumentum up AMD Down

Software-related weak after Anthropic announced an AI tool that could fully replace existing products. Excessive weakness of Nintendo offers a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Reflationary Push Amid Market Tensions

​Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Mark Chadwick

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

​Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...

Mark Chadwick

Japan's first female Prime Minister calls snap election, framing it as a referendum on her leadership and economic policies, including a...

Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...