Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We follow up our original piece after the release of full-year results and the annual IR day.</li>
<li>Some decent outperformance from the stock despite AI disruption fears.</li>
<li>Stock is cheap if the medium-term plan is achieved with Q1 results, the first scorecard.</li>
</ul>


We follow up our original piece after the release of full-year results and the annual IR day.
Some decent outperformance from the stock despite AI disruption fears.
Stock is cheap if the medium-term plan is achieved with Q1 results, the first scorecard.


NEC (6701.T) – Thesis Playing Out, Market Not Fully Convinced

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/future-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5485:1" rel="noopener">Future Corporation (4722 JP)</a> announced a Chairman-led MBO at JPY2,451, a 2.9% premium to the last close of JPY2,382.  </li>
<li>The low takeover premium could be explained by the mysterious 65.13% share price surge from 24 June to 27 July. Also, the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>However, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent transactions, potentially attracting activists.</li>
</ul>



Future Corporation (4722 JP) announced a Chairman-led MBO at JPY2,451, a 2.9% premium to the last close of JPY2,382.  
The low takeover premium could be explained by the mysterious 65.13% share price surge from 24 June to 27 July. Also, the offer represents an all-time high. 
However, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent transactions, potentially attracting activists.


Future Corp (4722 JP): A Chairman-Led MBO Could Invite Activism

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.7 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/archion-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47577:1" rel="noopener">Archion (543A JP)</a>’s shares have declined 5.8% to the undisturbed price of JPY313 (3 July).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Archion's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.7 billion secondary offering, Archion (543A JP)’s shares have declined 5.8% to the undisturbed price of JPY313 (3 July).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Archion's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


<ul>
<li>On 2 July, Nikkei reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> plans to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a> private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


On 2 July, Nikkei reported that Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) plans to take Dentsu Soken (4812 JP) private by partnering with Fujitsu and other general trading companies.
The rumoured JPY200 billion valuation for the 38.12% stake not owned by Dentsu suggests an offer of JPY2,688 per share, a 26.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.


Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

NEC (6701.T) – Thesis Playing Out, Market Not Fully Convinced

+6% after Q1results. revenue +14.5% to ¥819.8bn; non-GAAP OP +¥34.7bn to ¥74.7bn. FY OP guidance raised ¥10bn to ¥430bn (revenue +¥40bn to...

Rikki Malik

Future Corp (4722 JP): A Chairman-Led MBO Could Invite Activism

While an all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee's IFA DCF valuation range and is light relative to precedent...

Arun George

Archion (543A JP): The Current Playbook

The preliminary pricing range is JPY250 to JPY300 per share. The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. The average large Japanese placement...

Arun George

Dentsu Soken (4812 JP): Dentsu’s Potential Privatisation Offer

Due to Dentsu’s large stake, a generous offer is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and...

Arun George

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