Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. </li>
<li>Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future</li>
<li>Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.


Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The company’s FY24 revenue/net profit stood flat YoY at RMB 42.9bn/RMB 16bn, 10%/3% below CMBI estimates, mainly due to public-opinion-related headwinds, fiercer competition, and weak consumer sentiment hitting its packaged water market share.</li><li>Growth in tea and juice segments partially offset the impact. The company projects a recovery for packaged water in FY25E, with tea biz set to keep &gt;20% growth, driving double-digit overall revenue growth.</li><li>Juice may emerge as the third growth driver in recent years. Overseas expansion began in Hong Kong and will continue. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The company’s FY24 revenue/net profit stood flat YoY at RMB 42.9bn/RMB 16bn, 10%/3% below CMBI estimates, mainly due to public-opinion-related headwinds, fiercer competition, and weak consumer sentiment hitting its packaged water market share.Growth in tea and juice segments partially offset the impact. The company projects a recovery for packaged water in FY25E, with tea biz set to keep &gt;20% growth, driving double-digit overall revenue growth.Juice may emerge as the third growth driver in recent years. Overseas expansion began in Hong Kong and will continue. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) - Flat FY24 Earnings, with FY25 Set for Double-Digit Growth

<ul>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.</li>
<li>However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.</li>
<li>We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  </li>
</ul>


MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  


MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Trip.Com (9961 HK), ABC (1288 HK), BYD (1211 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com (9961 HK), ABC (1288 HK), BYD (1211 HK).


HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, ABC, BYD

China

Nongfu Spring is a leading Chinese company primarily engaged in the production and sale of packaged drinking water and a diverse range of beverages. Its product portfolio includes natural packaged drinking water, ready-to-drink teas, functional beverages, and fruit juices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

We adjusted next 3yr forecast. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang