IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

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Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry's future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable.</li>
<li>Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage's sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. </li>
<li>CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).</li>
</ul>


The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry's future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable.
Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage's sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. 
CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).


Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a>  plans to raise  US$650m at the upper end of the indicative IPO price range at a market capitalisation and EV of HK$34bn and HK$27bn respectively.</li>
<li>Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged drinking water market is intensely competitive creating a price war and dragging down growth rates.</li>
<li>CR Beverage is less diversified and has inferior margins compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> , hence priced at a deep discount to its peer, making the IPO pricing attractive.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)  plans to raise  US$650m at the upper end of the indicative IPO price range at a market capitalisation and EV of HK$34bn and HK$27bn respectively.
Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged drinking water market is intensely competitive creating a price war and dragging down growth rates.
CR Beverage is less diversified and has inferior margins compared to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) , hence priced at a deep discount to its peer, making the IPO pricing attractive.


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>CR Beverage, a pioneer in China's packaged drinking water industry with a forty years history, sets terms for upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The IPO is expected to be between HK$13.50 and HK$14.50. At the midpoint of the range, CR Beverage would command a market value of ~HK$33B or ~$4.2B.</li>
<li>I view IPO valuation as attractive vs. domestic peers as profitability and gross profit margins improved. UBS, BOCI, CITIC Securities and Bank of America are leading the offering.</li>
</ul>


CR Beverage, a pioneer in China's packaged drinking water industry with a forty years history, sets terms for upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
The IPO is expected to be between HK$13.50 and HK$14.50. At the midpoint of the range, CR Beverage would command a market value of ~HK$33B or ~$4.2B.
I view IPO valuation as attractive vs. domestic peers as profitability and gross profit margins improved. UBS, BOCI, CITIC Securities and Bank of America are leading the offering.


CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a>, China's largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China's largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

China

Nongfu Spring is a leading Chinese company primarily engaged in the production and sale of packaged drinking water and a diverse range of beverages. Its product portfolio includes natural packaged drinking water, ready-to-drink teas, functional beverages, and fruit juices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified

CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable due to growth stagnation and inability to innovate.The lack of flexibility/risk resistance...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CR Beverage IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CR Beverage plans to raise around US$650m through its HKEx IPO. Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap

CR Beverage, a leading producer and seller of packaged drinking water in China, sets terms for long-awaited IPO in Hong Kong with ~$650M target.

Andrei Zakharov

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage - Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified

​CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable due to growth stagnation and inability to innovate.The lack of flexibility/risk resistance...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CR Beverage IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CR Beverage plans to raise around US$650m through its HKEx IPO. Though the company has a strong business model and fundamentals, the packaged...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap

CR Beverage, a leading producer and seller of packaged drinking water in China, sets terms for long-awaited IPO in Hong Kong with ~$650M target.

Andrei Zakharov

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

CR Beverage's future performance decline is inevitable due to growth stagnation and inability to innovate.The lack of flexibility/risk resistance...