Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>'s  expiry of one-year lock-ups covering pre-IPO shareholders  will materially increase the tradable float and likely near-term liquidity.</li>
<li>The recent 18% share price decline possibly reflects investor concern that early shareholders, sitting on substantial gains, may monetise holdings, creating technical supply pressure.</li>
<li>The forthcoming FY2025 results announcement (end March)  can be critical in resetting earnings visibility and forward guidance. Stock trading at lower end of peer valuation range.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK)'s  expiry of one-year lock-ups covering pre-IPO shareholders  will materially increase the tradable float and likely near-term liquidity.
The recent 18% share price decline possibly reflects investor concern that early shareholders, sitting on substantial gains, may monetise holdings, creating technical supply pressure.
The forthcoming FY2025 results announcement (end March)  can be critical in resetting earnings visibility and forward guidance. Stock trading at lower end of peer valuation range.


Mixue Group: Lock-Up Expiry. Stock Slides 18% in a Month. Likely Limited Downside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)</a>, a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Trading - Weak Retail and Mediocre Insti Demand

Eastroc Beverage Group   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34882:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH)</a> (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Aequitas: Eastroc Beverage A/H Trading - Weak Retail, Strong Insti Demand

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Eastroc Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Eastroc Beverage Group is target market cap of HK$234.7 billion (US$30.1 billion). </li>
<li>This is 41% higher than the expected market cap of HK$166.4 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 29.6x our estimated net profit of RMB7.1 billion (2027E). Eastroc Beverage has higher sales growth rate and ROE than its comps.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Eastroc Beverage Group is target market cap of HK$234.7 billion (US$30.1 billion). 
This is 41% higher than the expected market cap of HK$166.4 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View. 
Our base case valuation is based on P/E of 29.6x our estimated net profit of RMB7.1 billion (2027E). Eastroc Beverage has higher sales growth rate and ROE than its comps.


Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foodstuff-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH)</a> , a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH) , a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing.
MF is a leading pork company with over 30 years of expertise in the hog farming industry.
We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Listing - Decent Pricing, Weak Momentum

China

Nongfu Spring is a leading Chinese company primarily engaged in the production and sale of packaged drinking water and a diverse range of beverages. Its product portfolio includes natural packaged drinking water, ready-to-drink teas, functional beverages, and fruit juices. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

Mixue Group: Lock-Up Expiry. Stock Slides 18% in a Month. Likely Limited Downside

Trading near the low end of valuation multiples, amid likely concerns over post lock-up expiry stake sale - limited downside risk. Upcoming FY2025...

Devi Subhakesan

Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Trading - Weak Retail and Mediocre Insti Demand

Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Eastroc Beverage A/H Trading - Weak Retail, Strong Insti Demand

Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We have a Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...

Douglas Kim

Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Listing - Decent Pricing, Weak Momentum

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH) , a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mixue Group: Lock-Up Expiry. Stock Slides 18% in a Month. Likely Limited Downside

Trading near the low end of valuation multiples, amid likely concerns over post lock-up expiry stake sale - limited downside risk. Upcoming FY2025...

Devi Subhakesan

Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Trading - Weak Retail and Mediocre Insti Demand

Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), a leader in the hog farming industry, raised around US$1.6bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Eastroc Beverage A/H Trading - Weak Retail, Strong Insti Demand

Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, raised around US$1.5bn in its H-share listing. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Eastroc Beverage Hong Kong IPO Valuation Analysis

We have a ​Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...

Douglas Kim

Aequitas: Muyuan Foods A/H Listing - Decent Pricing, Weak Momentum

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH) , a leader in the hog farming industry, aims to raise around US$1.4bn in its H-share listing. In this note,...

Sumeet Singh

We have a Positive outlook on Eastroc Beverage Group HK IPO with a target market cap of HK$234.7 billion, 41% higher than expected, based on...