Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), CCB (939 HK).


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 17th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, CCB

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.</li>
<li>At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.</li>
<li>The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.
At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.
The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.


CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China and is one of the largest players in its categories.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. </li>
<li>Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future</li>
<li>Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.


Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.</li>
<li>However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.</li>
<li>We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  </li>
</ul>


MIXUE's IPO debut was stellar. the IPO pricing of HK$202.5/share was indeed conservative. MIXUE is able to obtain more valuation premium space after IPO from a relatively low IPO pricing.
However, concerns on future performance growth remains. Investors need to pay attention to the performance verification. Market sentiment is becoming “overheated”, and the pressure for short-term stock price corrections increases.
We updated our forecast for 2025-2027. If based on P/E of 20-25x, market value is HK$109.4-136.8 billion, HK$122.5-153.2 billion, HK$134.8-168.5 billion based on 2025, 2026 and 2027 net profit, respectively.  


MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 17th): Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, CCB.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

The shares are trading 4.0% below the IPO price. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April. However, there is a low risk of...

Arun George

China Resources Beverage IPO Lockup- Cornerstones Coming Out of Lockup Ahead of the Large PE Release

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

We adjusted next 3yr forecast. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE Group (2097.HK) - Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

Stock price correction came shortly after MIXUE's valuation surpassed Nongfu Spring.Valuation by Mar.23 (31 P/E) was higher than industry average...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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