Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>'s valuation has come down to a much more reasonable 20x forward PE with expected net profit CAGR of 15% for the next 3 years.</li>
<li>The derating is largely due to the negative media portrayal of the company's Nongfu brand since February 2024, resulting in a -18% decline in its water business in 1H24. </li>
<li>Unsweetend tea business on the other hand has continued to shine, growing 59% yoy in sales in 1H24, while operating profit of the segment surged 63% yoy. </li>
</ul>



Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)'s valuation has come down to a much more reasonable 20x forward PE with expected net profit CAGR of 15% for the next 3 years.
The derating is largely due to the negative media portrayal of the company's Nongfu brand since February 2024, resulting in a -18% decline in its water business in 1H24. 
Unsweetend tea business on the other hand has continued to shine, growing 59% yoy in sales in 1H24, while operating profit of the segment surged 63% yoy. 


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Trading At Below 20x Forward PE With 15% NP 3-Year CAGR

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.


2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.</li>
<li>We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.</li>
<li>A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. </li>
</ul>



Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.
We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.
A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. 


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Within Striking Distance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nongfu’s 1H24 revenue missed company’s guidance given its market share loss in the packaged water segment.</li><li>We expect low single digit revenue growth for the segment since market share recovery takes time.</li><li>Tea beverage revenue grew 59% YoY and delivered revenue share close to water of 38%, with a 10ppt higher in OPM than water segment. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nongfu’s 1H24 revenue missed company’s guidance given its market share loss in the packaged water segment.We expect low single digit revenue growth for the segment since market share recovery takes time.Tea beverage revenue grew 59% YoY and delivered revenue share close to water of 38%, with a 10ppt higher in OPM than water segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) - 1H24 Missed, Tea Became Top Profit Contributor

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>1H24, Nongfu’s revenue growth rate fell to 8% YoY, because Wahaha launched a propaganda against Nongfu.</li>
<li>We believe the revenue growth will rise in 2H24 and 2025, as it seems that the public do not like the way Wahaha use.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 26% and a price target at HK$38 for the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


1H24, Nongfu’s revenue growth rate fell to 8% YoY, because Wahaha launched a propaganda against Nongfu.
We believe the revenue growth will rise in 2H24 and 2025, as it seems that the public do not like the way Wahaha use.
We set an upside of 26% and a price target at HK$38 for the end of 2025.


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): 1H24 Impacted by Defamation, But Finally the Public with Nongfu

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)