Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.</li>
<li>We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.</li>
<li>A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. </li>
</ul>



Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) has been trading flat since April 2021, even though earnings have grown 36% yoy in 2021, 19% yoy in 2022, and 25% yoy in 1H23.
We believe a forward PE lower than 35x would be a great entry price for Nongfu (37x currently), with upside potential in earnings from explosive growth in unsweetened tea.
A business that has a long run-way for growth, strong management, strengthening moat, great cash flow, and on top of that counter-cyclical, deserves a premium valuation anywhere in the world. 


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK):  Within Striking Distance

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We believe the criticism against Nongfu Spring will eventually help the company.</li>
<li>Catching the trend of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023.</li>
<li>The company achieved higher growth and higher margin, but its stock price is still flat.</li>
</ul>


We believe the criticism against Nongfu Spring will eventually help the company.
Catching the trend of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023.
The company achieved higher growth and higher margin, but its stock price is still flat.


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Criticism Not a Concern, Strong Performance, But Flat Price, Buy

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Weilong Delicious Global Holdi / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK)</a>, a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 2022.</li>
<li>According to F&amp;S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Weilong Delicious Global (9985 HK), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO in Dec 2022.
According to F&amp;S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Weilong Delicious Global IPO Lock-Up - Now for the Re-IPO with 10x Increase in Free Float

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba Group (9988 HK) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
Having looked at the past performance of its division, some appear more worthy than others of undertaking a listing in the next year or two.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

China

Nongfu Spring Co. Ltd. supplies soft drinks. The Company develops, produces, and sells bottled mineral water, fruit juice, sports drinks, and tea drinks. Nongfu Spring also offers barreled mineral water door-to-door services.

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Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)