Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.</li>
<li>The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.
Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.
The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.


Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.</li>
<li>Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.</li>
<li>Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.
Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.
Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.


Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Norway

Norsk Hydro ASA is a supplier of aluminum and aluminum products. The company provides automotive and transport products, building systems, casthouse products, extruded products, rolled products, and wire rod.

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Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY NO)

Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We are seeing encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites, including improvement within the Discretionary, Transports, and Materials...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

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