Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Thailand’s economy strengthened further as fiscal expenditures and robust tourism supported growth. However, the continuation of external headwinds means that exports remain weak and likely contractionary in 2016. Private investment is also languid as businesses hold off on capital expenditures in light of the political flux.</li><li>While the referendum went smoothly and the draft charter was approved, there is near-term stability without a longer-term resolution of deep-seated issues. Voting patterns in the referendum reflects regional divides as reconciliation efforts fall flat.</li><li>The long-term political outlook is also murky with the confluence of the looming royal succession, reluctance of the junta leaders to relinquish political power, tussle in the Buddhist Sangha and the frequent changes in the top leadership of the military.</li></ul>

Thailand’s economy strengthened further as fiscal expenditures and robust tourism supported growth. However, the continuation of external headwinds means that exports remain weak and likely contractionary in 2016. Private investment is also languid as businesses hold off on capital expenditures in light of the political flux.While the referendum went smoothly and the draft charter was approved, there is near-term stability without a longer-term resolution of deep-seated issues. Voting patterns in the referendum reflects regional divides as reconciliation efforts fall flat.The long-term political outlook is also murky with the confluence of the looming royal succession, reluctance of the junta leaders to relinquish political power, tussle in the Buddhist Sangha and the frequent changes in the top leadership of the military.

Thailand: Questions Remain over Long-Term Political Outlook

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent installments, we discuss: 1) Thai banks under regulatory headwinds (PromptPay &amp; deposit guarantee removals); 2) investment banks, brokers, and non-bank financiers in an age of declining fees and low interest; and 3) insurance stocks, using some of the things we read about from this uber-expensive book by McKinsey. We hope you enjoy this new series by the MCorp…

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent installments, we discuss: 1) Thai banks under regulatory headwinds (PromptPay &amp; deposit guarantee removals); 2) investment banks, brokers, and non-bank financiers in an age of declining fees and low interest; and 3) insurance stocks, using some of the things we read about from this uber-expensive book by McKinsey. We hope you enjoy this new series by the MCorp…

Sathorn Series 1: The Case Against Rate Cuts

Equity Bottom-Up

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund / Equity Bottom-Up

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Shr price (Bt/sh)</td>
<td>Mkt cap (US$ bn)</td>
<td>% ytd performance</td>
<td>PE (x)</td>
<td>Yld (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">EGATIF</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">N/A</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">RATCH</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">51.75</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">EGCO</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">201</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">32.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">GLOW</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">86</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove markets upwards by buying some Bt100bn in Thai equities this year. The Baht continues to strengthen over the last two days from Bt34.8 to Bt34.6, but both foreign and local funds sold heavily…



Stock
Shr price (Bt/sh)
Mkt cap (US$ bn)
% ytd performance
PE (x)
Yld (%)


EGATIF
11.6
0.7
12.6
N/A
2.6


RATCH
51.75
2.2
9.0
23.2
4.4


EGCO
201
3.1
32.7
17.7
3.1


GLOW
86
3.6
19.2
13.4
4.1

What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove markets upwards by buying some Bt100bn in Thai equities this year. The Baht continues to strengthen over the last two days from Bt34.8 to Bt34.6, but both foreign and local funds sold heavily…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:<ol><li class="p1">The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,</li><li class="p1">Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSI</li><li class="p1">Highlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. </li></ol>

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSIHighlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. 

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. <ul><li>Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…</li></ul>

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

Thailand

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund - EGAT is the electricity generating authority of Thailand. The Company combines heat and power plants using natural gas and steam-electricity. EGAT uses gas turbine and steam turbine generators.

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

Thailand: Questions Remain over Long-Term Political Outlook

Thailand’s economy strengthened further as fiscal expenditures and robust tourism supported growth. However, the continuation of external...

Jason Tan

Sathorn Series 1: The Case Against Rate Cuts

This is the first of our 4-part (initially) series on financial services and related themes, such as interest rates. In the subsequent...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

EGATIF: Safer than a Mattress

What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on: The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global...

David Riedel

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note,...

Manu Bhaskaran

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)