Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:<ol><li class="p1">The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,</li><li class="p1">Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSI</li><li class="p1">Highlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. </li></ol>

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSIHighlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. 

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. <ul><li>Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…</li></ul>

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note, first, the geographic reach: The fact that terrorism has now gone beyond its previous concentration in the deep south must worry Thailand’s security chiefs. Hua Hin, a tourist resort just a short distance away from Bangkok and the place where the King spends most of his time was hit. There were also bomb blasts in other tourist spots such as Phuket and…

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with the likely victory of the pro-Thaksin faction. Thaksinomic tends to favor domestic consumer plays over export-oriented stocks or infrastructure themes. Companies founded by Thaksin, such as AIS and Thaicom, and upcountry stocks, such as CP All, Robinsons, and Siam Global, should all do well under Thaksin's sister (a different one this time), but we would not recommend touching rubber stocks, consumer banking, or Thai Airways (a company that has always jinxed it under successive pro-Thaksin regimes).

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with the likely victory of the pro-Thaksin faction. Thaksinomic tends to favor domestic consumer plays over export-oriented stocks or infrastructure themes. Companies founded by Thaksin, such as AIS and Thaicom, and upcountry stocks, such as CP All, Robinsons, and Siam Global, should all do well under Thaksin's sister (a different one this time), but we would not recommend touching rubber stocks, consumer banking, or Thai Airways (a company that has always jinxed it under successive pro-Thaksin regimes).

Election Year 2017: Return to Thaksinomics

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Thailand: Affirmation of referendum means short-term stability, but underlying issues remain<ul><li>Thais voted on 7 Aug to approve the military junta’s proposed constitution, with around 61.4% supporting and 38.6% rejecting the constitution on a 55% turnout.</li><li>This outcome will enhance the political legitimacy of the military government and bolster short-term stability, leading to a release of pent-up investment and consumption impetus.</li><li>However, in the longer-term, challenges are likely as the underlying political divides have not been addressed. The affirmed charter will crimp democracy in Thailand and possibly cause a large proportion of the population to feel disenfranchised.</li><li>Finally, in addition to the political rift, the ailing health of the Thai King, the upheaval in Thai Buddhism and the increasingly vicious insurgency in the South will test any incoming government.</li></ul>

Thailand: Affirmation of referendum means short-term stability, but underlying issues remainThais voted on 7 Aug to approve the military junta’s proposed constitution, with around 61.4% supporting and 38.6% rejecting the constitution on a 55% turnout.This outcome will enhance the political legitimacy of the military government and bolster short-term stability, leading to a release of pent-up investment and consumption impetus.However, in the longer-term, challenges are likely as the underlying political divides have not been addressed. The affirmed charter will crimp democracy in Thailand and possibly cause a large proportion of the population to feel disenfranchised.Finally, in addition to the political rift, the ailing health of the Thai King, the upheaval in Thai Buddhism and the increasingly vicious insurgency in the South will test any incoming government.

Thailand Referendum: Short-Term Stability but Underlying Issues Unresolved

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic  analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant,  actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of Japan and the Bank of England with implications for the Yen and GBP.

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic  analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant,  actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of Japan and the Bank of England with implications for the Yen and GBP.   

Thailand

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF) is a closed-end infrastructure fund that invests in the future availability revenue from the North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1. This power plant has a contracted capacity of 670 MW and uses natural gas as its primary fuel. The fund was established and listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 2015, with its headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand.

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

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North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund (EGATIF TB)

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on: The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global...

David Riedel

Thailand: Significant Rise in Political Risk

The bomb attacks that killed at least 4 people and hurting 34 others late last week represent a significant increase in political risk. Note,...

Manu Bhaskaran

Election Year 2017: Return to Thaksinomics

The recent passing of the new constitution by national referendum means Thailand's general elections in September 2017 has been ensured, along with...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thailand Referendum: Short-Term Stability but Underlying Issues Unresolved

Thailand: Affirmation of referendum means short-term stability, but underlying issues remain Thais voted on 7 Aug to approve the military junta’s...

Jason Tan

Fed Watching 2.0

Fed watching 2.0Automated, systematic analysis of central bank policy makers offers significant, actionable insights as iIlustrated by Bank of...

ClearMacro

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