Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.</li><li>We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.</li><li>We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER</li></ul>

Exports in June grew by 15.5% YoY, supporting a 15.0% YoY expansion in 1H25.We believe this momentum was not solely driven by pent-up demand, but also by trade diversion, which suggests the positive trend could continue into 2H25E.We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

<ul><li>The US has maintained the reciprocal tariff rate on Thailand at 36%, while allowing room for negotiations before the new tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025.</li><li>If the US ultimately imposes this 36% tariff on Thai exports (with KTX estimating a 30% probability), it would undermine the competitiveness of Thai products — particularly electronics and rubber — posing downside risk that could push the SET Index down to 1,037 points over the next 12 months.</li><li>However, we believe the Thai government will make strong efforts to negotiate the rate down closer to 18% (55% probability). </li></ul>

The US has maintained the reciprocal tariff rate on Thailand at 36%, while allowing room for negotiations before the new tariff takes effect on August 1, 2025.If the US ultimately imposes this 36% tariff on Thai exports (with KTX estimating a 30% probability), it would undermine the competitiveness of Thai products — particularly electronics and rubber — posing downside risk that could push the SET Index down to 1,037 points over the next 12 months.However, we believe the Thai government will make strong efforts to negotiate the rate down closer to 18% (55% probability). 

Special Report: Reciprocal Tariff - JULY 9, 2025

Rubber News Specialist, Helixtap

Vinod Nedumudy

Rubber News Specialist

Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Commodities

<ul><li>Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  </li><li>Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  </li><li>North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  </li></ul>

Sri Trang posts US$48.8 mn profit, reversing loss of US$12.7 mn in 2023  Sri Trang sells 133,163 tons of EUDR rubber in 2024  North East Rubber setting up plant in Ivory Coast  

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>KTX's strategy team has a positive outlook on the Thai stock market in 1Q25.</li><li>The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de-ratings for high-growth stocks.</li><li>In contrast, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential shift toward tighter monetary policy creates an opportunity for capital to flow back into the Asian region. </li></ul>

KTX's strategy team has a positive outlook on the Thai stock market in 1Q25.The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de-ratings for high-growth stocks.In contrast, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential shift toward tighter monetary policy creates an opportunity for capital to flow back into the Asian region. 

Special Report: Stock Valuation - January 2, 2025

<ul><li>KTX expects the trade balance to continue showing surpluses for the remainder of the year, following a second consecutive monthly surplus in September and the fourth surplus in the past nine months.</li><li>This trend is bolstered by three months of consecutive export growth, with exports rising positively in seven of the past nine months.</li><li>Full-year 2024E exports are projected to exceed the Ministry of Commerce’s (MoC) 2% target. </li></ul>

KTX expects the trade balance to continue showing surpluses for the remainder of the year, following a second consecutive monthly surplus in September and the fourth surplus in the past nine months.This trend is bolstered by three months of consecutive export growth, with exports rising positively in seven of the past nine months.Full-year 2024E exports are projected to exceed the Ministry of Commerce’s (MoC) 2% target. 

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - October 30, 2024

Thailand

Northeast Rubber Public Company Limited manufactures rubber products. The Company focuses on producing ribbed smoked sheets, soles, hoses, and rubber components. Northeast Rubber markets its products worldwide.

Northeast Rubber Public Company Limited (NER TB)

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Northeast Rubber Public Company Limited (NER TB)

Economic Update – Exports & Imports -JULY 29, 2025

We recommend speculative trading in laggard export-related and industrial estate stocks, namely CCET, CPF, STA, TU, HANA, STGT, BTG, and NER

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Reciprocal Tariff - JULY 9, 2025

We recommend speculative buying of stocks affected by concerns over the 36% tariff, namely DELTA, HANA, CCET, SVI, STA, NER, WHA, and AMATA.

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Rubber: Sri Trang Makes A Spectacular Foray In 2024, NER Too Impresses

Thailand’s rubber industry witnessed a strong rebound in 2024, with leading company Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited (STA) scripting...

Helixtap

Special Report: Stock Valuation - January 2, 2025

The expansionary fiscal policy of the incoming US president is expected to keep US bond yields high for an extended duration, posing risk of de...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update – Exports & Imports - October 30, 2024

KTX expects the trade balance to continue showing surpluses for the remainder of the year, following a second consecutive monthly surplus in...

Krungthai XSpring

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