IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-african-resources-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23518:1" rel="noopener">Pan African Resources (PAF LN)</a>’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.</li>
<li>The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).</li>
</ul>


The Emmerson Resources (ERM AU) IE considers Pan African Resources (PAF LN)’s offer (0.1493 PAN CDI shares per ERM share) fair and reasonable.
Unusually, the IE’s valuation (A$0.087 to A$0.139) is well below the undisturbed price (A$0.33), apparently due to low liquidity and to the DCF valuation not factoring in all the reserves.
The key condition is ERM shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk as the substantial shareholders will be supportive (irrevocables or high premium to their price paid).


Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Brambles, National Australia Bank, Scentre, Nextdc, Northern Star Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD44.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Brambles, National Australia Bank, Scentre, Nextdc, Northern Star Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 1st): Brambles, National Australia Bank, Scentre, Nextdc

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.</li>
<li>The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. </li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Regis Resources (RRL AU) entered into a merger through a scheme of arrangement. The consideration is 0.6937 RRL shares per VAU share.
The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), the long-rumoured suitor for Vault, is unlikely to get involved. 
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and benign shareholder structure.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Gold fever continues down under as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> announce a A$11bn merger, creating the ASX's third largest gold miner.</li>
<li>By way of a Scheme, Regis is offering 0.6947 new shares for each Vault share. Post merger, Regis and Vault shareholders will hold 51% and 49% in the combined entity.</li>
<li>Both boards unanimously back the transaction, which is projected to complete late August, early September. Clean deal.</li>
</ul>


Gold fever continues down under as Regis Resources (RRL AU) and Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) announce a A$11bn merger, creating the ASX's third largest gold miner.
By way of a Scheme, Regis is offering 0.6947 new shares for each Vault share. Post merger, Regis and Vault shareholders will hold 51% and 49% in the combined entity.
Both boards unanimously back the transaction, which is projected to complete late August, early September. Clean deal.


Regis Resources (RRL AU) & Vault Minerals (VAU AU) Claim Each Other

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current run going to peter out? We analyse gold as an investment vehicle, inflation hedge and its status as “asset of last resort”. We also look at the current trends in demand and supply and try to answer the eternal question “is it the right time to invest in gold or gold stocks”.

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current run going to peter out? We analyse gold as an investment vehicle, inflation hedge and its status as “asset of last resort”. We also look at the current trends in demand and supply and try to answer the eternal question “is it the right time to invest in gold or gold stocks”.  

Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Emmerson Resources (ERM AU): Scheme Vote on 15 June

This is a done deal as the scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for a 1 July payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.0%/6.6%.

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 1st): Brambles, National Australia Bank, Scentre, Nextdc

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Brambles, National Australia Bank, Scentre, Nextdc,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Resources’ Strategically Sensible Merger

The deal is largely about chasing scale rather than about operational synergies. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio...

Arun George

Regis Resources (RRL AU) & Vault Minerals (VAU AU) Claim Each Other

Another straightforward, albeit, large gold merger. Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 5.4%/18% assuming late Aug completion. If you can take...

David Blennerhassett

Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?

Gold has had a great run in the last 15 years, beating almost all the other class. Is it the beginning of an another super cycle or is the current...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)