Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> private. That values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos</a> equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.</li>
<li>With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.</li>
</ul>


A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.

Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&amp;P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.


Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30999:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.</li>
<li>There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals</a>, it is much higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals</a>.</li>
</ul>



Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.


MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 17th March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan (SPR AU)</a> agreed to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius (RMS AU)</a>. The cash/scrip merger combined operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.</li>
<li>The implied price of A$1.78/share was a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP.  The deal arrived after Spartan was outbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/karora-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40957:1" rel="noopener">Karora (KRR CN)</a>, and Spartan rebuffed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold (WGX AU)</a>'s approach.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250604/pdf/06kfgj8tm61bsl.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected implementation on or before the 31st July. The IE (BDO) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 17th March, Spartan (SPR AU) agreed to merge with Ramelius (RMS AU). The cash/scrip merger combined operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
The implied price of A$1.78/share was a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP.  The deal arrived after Spartan was outbid for Karora (KRR CN), and Spartan rebuffed Westgold (WGX AU)'s approach.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected implementation on or before the 31st July. The IE (BDO) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius' Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources (SPR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). </li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  </li>
</ul>


The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). 
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 23rd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Goodman, ANZ, Asx.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 23rd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Goodman, ANZ, Asx.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 23rd): National Australia Bank, Goodman, ANZ, Asx

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium's Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium has offered US$5.76/share to take Santos private. That values equity at A$28.8bn and an EV of A$36bn. There will be ad hoc adds to the...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

The 2 adds and float/capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m. Shorts have been covering both adds, but...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius' Offer

Given the cost/ounce to mine gold, this merger makes sense. Expect more mergers to occur. Trading super tight at 0.9%. If you can take down borrow...

David Blennerhassett

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

This is a done deal, in part due to the irrevocables. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 23rd): National Australia Bank, Goodman, ANZ, Asx

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in National Australia Bank, Goodman, ANZ, Asx.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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