Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Aug 2025, 17 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$18bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was 48%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%</li>
</ul>


For Aug 2025, 17 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$18bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in August was 48%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2025 Wrap: Dongfeng Motor, Kangji, Carenet, Nihon Chouzai, Technopro

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources, Lottery.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 22nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD25.6bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources, Lottery.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

<ul>
<li>Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a> in the market or tender.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> appears "cheap" to 90%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)</a>; however recent implied stub figures have rolled over</li>
</ul>


Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.

Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears "cheap" to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynch-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36359:1" rel="noopener">Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU) and Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU).
Key updates/news took place on Santos Ltd (STO AU), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), and Smart Share Global (EM US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Australia

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

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Northern Star Resources (NST AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2025 Wrap: Dongfeng Motor, Kangji, Carenet, Nihon Chouzai, Technopro

For the month of Aug, 17 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$18bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2025 Wrap: Dongfeng Motor, Kangji, Carenet, Nihon Chouzai, Technopro

For the month of Aug, 17 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$18bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Bluescope Steel, CSL, Wesfarmers, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Santos, Abacus Storage, Gold Road, PointsBet, Smart Share, Apiam, Lynch

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas