Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Jacobio Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

Recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jacobio-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29696:1" rel="noopener">Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1588148D CH)</a> got the approval to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Founded in 2015, Jacobio is committed to providing products and solutions to people’s health with a platform and expertise in developing allosteric inhibitors against protein tyrosine phosphatase, KRAS and transcriptional factors. In China, Jacobio is the first to explore the KARS signaling pathway and is also the leading company in this field. Since the establishment more than five years ago, Jacobio has developed rapidly and steadily, and its pipeline is very distinctive. The following provides the insights on its pipeline.

Recently, Jacobio Pharmaceuticals (1588148D CH) got the approval to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Founded in 2015, Jacobio is committed to providing products and solutions to people’s health with a platform and expertise in developing allosteric inhibitors against protein tyrosine phosphatase, KRAS and transcriptional factors. In China, Jacobio is the first to explore the KARS signaling pathway and is also the leading company in this field. Since the establishment more than five years ago, Jacobio has developed rapidly and steadily, and its pipeline is very distinctive. The following provides the insights on its pipeline.

Pre-IPO Jacobio Pharmaceuticals - Insights on Pipeline

Equity Bottom-Up

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livzon-pharmaceutical-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24770:1" rel="noopener">Livzon Pharmaceutical Group-A (000513 CH)</a> released its third quarter report in 2020. The Q1-Q3 accumulated revenue was RMB7.926 billion, with a YoY growth rate of 8.64%. Net income attributed to shareholders in the first three quarters was RMB1.422 billion, up 36.71% YoY. Net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were RMB1.179 billion, up 23.15% YoY. Q3 single quarter revenue was RMB2.83 billion, up 20.14% YoY. Net income attributed to shareholders reached RMB417 million, up 38.52% YoY. Q3’s single quarter net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB344 million, up 15.28% YoY. Q3 performance was above expectations, with the highest YoY growth rate in the single quarter in nearly three years, and demonstrated strong recovery in various sectors.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/175/696/original/image_32979984121606785555504.png?1606785557" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="175696"></figure>Source: WIND

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group-A (000513 CH) released its third quarter report in 2020. The Q1-Q3 accumulated revenue was RMB7.926 billion, with a YoY growth rate of 8.64%. Net income attributed to shareholders in the first three quarters was RMB1.422 billion, up 36.71% YoY. Net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were RMB1.179 billion, up 23.15% YoY. Q3 single quarter revenue was RMB2.83 billion, up 20.14% YoY. Net income attributed to shareholders reached RMB417 million, up 38.52% YoY. Q3’s single quarter net income after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was RMB344 million, up 15.28% YoY. Q3 performance was above expectations, with the highest YoY growth rate in the single quarter in nearly three years, and demonstrated strong recovery in various sectors.Source: WIND

Livzon Pharmaceutical (000513.CH) - A Good Company that You Can't Afford Missing

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

We have established a pre-money valuation for Jacobio of US$1.1 billion based primarily on DCF values for JAB-3068, JAB-3312, and the license agreement with AbbVie. Our analysis is subject to change based on additional disclosures in the PHIP and other developments.  This Insight also includes a list of questions for management.See our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jacobio-pharma-focus-on-novel-targets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44287" rel="noopener">Jacobio Pharma: Focus on Novel Targets</a> for background information.

We have established a pre-money valuation for Jacobio of US$1.1 billion based primarily on DCF values for JAB-3068, JAB-3312, and the license agreement with AbbVie. Our analysis is subject to change based on additional disclosures in the PHIP and other developments.  This Insight also includes a list of questions for management.See our previous Insight Jacobio Pharma: Focus on Novel Targets for background information. 

Jacobio Pharma: More Thinking on Valuation

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis (NOVN SE)

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Pre-IPO Jacobio Pharmaceuticals - Insights on Pipeline

This article analyzed the compelling and distinctive pipeline of Jacobio Pharmaceuticals in terms of projects. Meanwhile, it also disclose the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Livzon Pharmaceutical (000513.CH) - A Good Company that You Can't Afford Missing

This article analyzed Livzon's R&D highlights, main products and pipelines, financial position, and made forecast and rating for the Company.

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jacobio Pharma: More Thinking on Valuation

Our DCF analysis of Jacobio Pharma results in a US$1.1B pre-money valuation based on the company's lead compounds and the AbbVie license agreement....

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

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