Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5</li>
<li>Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.</li>
<li>2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. </li>
</ul>


3Q25 Outlook &amp; Guidance- Revenue: NT$23.7–24.7bn( down 9.5~5.7% QoQ); Gross Margin: 34–37%; Operating Margin: 15–18%; USD/TWD Assumption: 29.5
Weaker demand from China due to subsidy tapering in 3Q25, but seasonal stocking in non-China markets.
2025 foldable penetration estimated at ~1.6% (~19mn units); Large foldables: higher internal display resolution and ASP; OLED TDDI advantage: fewer components, more space-efficient, enabling thinner phones. 


Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?</li>
<li>Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher </li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure </li>
</ul>


U.S. 2nm Production May Begin Sooner Than Expected — Is TSMC Responding to Unprecedented N2 Demand?
Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher 
TechChain Insights: Taiwan’s Battery Cell Moment? USA &amp; EU Supply Chain Under Strategic Pressure 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>'s 3Q25 might be decline 5-10% QoQ, reflecting 2H25 US tariffs impacts and Chinese opponent's competition.   </li>
<li>The Foldable handset may be indicated a new era to come, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> shall be one of the DDIC winners.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> is long staying with NT$450~650 since the beginning of 2024, and the current price is at the relative low point.</li>
</ul>


We expect Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)'s 3Q25 might be decline 5-10% QoQ, reflecting 2H25 US tariffs impacts and Chinese opponent's competition.   
The Foldable handset may be indicated a new era to come, and we believe Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) shall be one of the DDIC winners.  
The stock price of Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) is long staying with NT$450~650 since the beginning of 2024, and the current price is at the relative low point.


Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD25.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics, Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD25.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics, Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial, King Yuan Electronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,804mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, MediaTek, CTBC Financial, Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Mediatek, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated holding was USD1,172.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,804mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, MediaTek, CTBC Financial, Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, Mediatek, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 25th): Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, MediaTek

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Nan Ya Plastics (1303 TT), Taishin Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 25th): Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, MediaTek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Taishin Financial (2887 TT), Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected; Weaker Demand from China Due to Subsidy Tapering.

​3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Arizona Surprise - 2nm by 2026?; Signs of Hyperscaler Growth Acceleration

​TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): FX Impact Persists; 3Q25 May Be a Down Quarter.

​Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Nan Ya Plastics, Taishin Financial, Wistron, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Nan Ya Plastics (1303 TT), Taishin Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 25th): Taishin Financial, Hon Hai Precision, TSMC, MediaTek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Taishin Financial (2887 TT), Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

3Q25 outlook: Revenue down 9.5-5.7% QoQ, weaker China demand but seasonal stocking in non-China markets. 2025 foldable penetration estimated at...

TSMC may start producing 2nm chips in the U.S. sooner due to high demand, hyperscalers see revenue growth and increased capex, Taiwan's battery...

Novatek 3Q25 expected to decline 5-10% due to US tariffs and Chinese competition, but potential DDIC winner in foldable handset era. Stock price...