India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Natco specializes in complex generics with a catalogue of 30 Para IV filings (14 approved), demonstrating strong R&amp;D expertise and a track record of successful high-value launches most prominently gRevlimid.</li>
<li>Its current pipeline include potential blockbuster drugs like generic versions of Evrysdi, Ozempic/Wegovy (GLP-1), Kyprolis, and Imbruvica, which could drive future growth and offset concerns about declining Revlimid revenues post-FY26.</li>
<li>We estimate Natco (ex-Revlimid) can generate ~2,500cr in revenues with profit of 320-350cr. Its 3,500cr cash-in-hand, Para IV optionalities and NCE investments (Gene therapy) make its current valuation attractive.</li>
</ul>


Natco specializes in complex generics with a catalogue of 30 Para IV filings (14 approved), demonstrating strong R&amp;D expertise and a track record of successful high-value launches most prominently gRevlimid.
Its current pipeline include potential blockbuster drugs like generic versions of Evrysdi, Ozempic/Wegovy (GLP-1), Kyprolis, and Imbruvica, which could drive future growth and offset concerns about declining Revlimid revenues post-FY26.
We estimate Natco (ex-Revlimid) can generate ~2,500cr in revenues with profit of 320-350cr. Its 3,500cr cash-in-hand, Para IV optionalities and NCE investments (Gene therapy) make its current valuation attractive.


Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eli-lilly-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19419:1" rel="noopener">Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US)</a> has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.</li>
<li>At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.</li>
<li>Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.</li>
</ul>



Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US) has recently announced positive topline Phase 3 results for orforglipron, the GLP 1 RA drug candidate they licensed from Chugai Pharma in 2018.
At the top dose, patients lost 7.3 kg of the 90.2 kg they weighed at the start of the trial, bettering Ozempic’s trial results.
Once approved and commercialized, orforglipron should provide a long-term revenue visibility for Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) through milestone and royalty receipts from Lilly.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>FDA has confirmed the primary endpoints for Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ planned Phase 3 pivotal clinical trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid syndrome. Eisai has ultimately received its long-waited European approval for Leqembi.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical’s outlicensed oral GLP-1 drug candidate orforglipron has shown positive topline Phase 3 results. Telix announced preliminary results from the Phase 2 study of TLX101 in recurrent high-grade glioma.</li>
<li>Biocon secured market entry date for Yesafili, an interchangeable biosimilar to Eylea in the U.S. FDA has issued Form 483 with 11 observations for Aurobindo Pharma’s North Carolina inhaler plant.</li>
</ul>


FDA has confirmed the primary endpoints for Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ planned Phase 3 pivotal clinical trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid syndrome. Eisai has ultimately received its long-waited European approval for Leqembi.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s outlicensed oral GLP-1 drug candidate orforglipron has shown positive topline Phase 3 results. Telix announced preliminary results from the Phase 2 study of TLX101 in recurrent high-grade glioma.
Biocon secured market entry date for Yesafili, an interchangeable biosimilar to Eylea in the U.S. FDA has issued Form 483 with 11 observations for Aurobindo Pharma’s North Carolina inhaler plant.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 20)- Neuren, Chugai, Eisai, Telix, Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma

<ul>
<li>Eisai is eyeing for Leqembi global revenue of ¥250–280B in FY28. Kaken Pharmaceutical inlicensed dermatology drug candidate from Alumis. Kaken’s onychomycosis drug got approval in Italy.</li>
<li>Mochida Pharmaceutical has applied for marketing approval of Actembra biosimilar in Japan. Shionogi has filed for indication expansion of Xocova for post-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Japan.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience got approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of 21-valent pneumococcal vaccine in European countries. PharmaEssential obtained approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of Ropeginterferon alfa-2b in China.</li>
</ul>


Eisai is eyeing for Leqembi global revenue of ¥250–280B in FY28. Kaken Pharmaceutical inlicensed dermatology drug candidate from Alumis. Kaken’s onychomycosis drug got approval in Italy.
Mochida Pharmaceutical has applied for marketing approval of Actembra biosimilar in Japan. Shionogi has filed for indication expansion of Xocova for post-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 in Japan.
SK Bioscience got approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of 21-valent pneumococcal vaccine in European countries. PharmaEssential obtained approval for Phase 3 clinical trial of Ropeginterferon alfa-2b in China.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> has announced 2024 result, with total revenue increasing a whopping 52% YoY to RMB9,422M and net loss narrowing 91% YoY to RMB933M.</li>
<li>On adjusted basis, the company reported maiden net profit of RMB332M compared with loss of RMB515M in 2023. Innovent is expected to become profitable on reported basis this year.</li>
<li>Innovent aims to achieve RMB 20B product revenue in 2027, implying a CAGR of 34% and advance five pipeline assets to the global/multi-regional Phase 3 clinical trial stage by 2030. </li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) has announced 2024 result, with total revenue increasing a whopping 52% YoY to RMB9,422M and net loss narrowing 91% YoY to RMB933M.
On adjusted basis, the company reported maiden net profit of RMB332M compared with loss of RMB515M in 2023. Innovent is expected to become profitable on reported basis this year.
Innovent aims to achieve RMB 20B product revenue in 2027, implying a CAGR of 34% and advance five pipeline assets to the global/multi-regional Phase 3 clinical trial stage by 2030. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK): 2024 Product Sales Jump 44% and Loss Narrows; Momentum to Continue

Denmark

Novo Nordisk A/S develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on diabetes care and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The Company offers educational and training materials. Novo Nordisk markets worldwide.

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Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC)

Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot

Natco excels in complex generics, with a strong R&D track record and potential blockbuster drugs in its pipeline, positioning it for future growth...

Himanshu Dugar

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 20)- Neuren, Chugai, Eisai, Telix, Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma

Neuren is a step closer to P3 trial in PMS. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate shows promise in P3 trial. Eisai got Leqembi approval in EU. Biocon...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Eisai outlined Leqembi sales target. Kaken inlicensed drug candidate. Mochida filed for Actembra biosimilar. Shionogi applied for label expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK): 2024 Product Sales Jump 44% and Loss Narrows; Momentum to Continue

Innovent Biologics reports impressive 2024 results with revenue up 52% and net loss narrowing by 91%. The company has set an ambitious growth...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot

​Natco excels in complex generics, with a strong R&D track record and potential blockbuster drugs in its pipeline, positioning it for future growth...

Himanshu Dugar

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Positive Phase 3 Results Of Orforglipron Augurs Well

​Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 20)- Neuren, Chugai, Eisai, Telix, Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma

Neuren is a step closer to P3 trial in PMS. Chugai’s oral GLP-1 drug candidate shows promise in P3 trial. Eisai got Leqembi approval in EU. Biocon...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Mar 30)- Eisai, Kaken, Mochida, Shionogi, SK Bioscience, PharmaEssentia

Eisai outlined Leqembi sales target. Kaken inlicensed drug candidate. Mochida filed for Actembra biosimilar. Shionogi applied for label expansion...

Tina Banerjee

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK): 2024 Product Sales Jump 44% and Loss Narrows; Momentum to Continue

​Innovent Biologics reports impressive 2024 results with revenue up 52% and net loss narrowing by 91%. The company has set an ambitious growth...

Tina Banerjee

Natco excels in complex generics, with a strong R&D track record and potential blockbuster drugs in its pipeline, positioning it for future growth...

Eli Lilly announces positive Phase 3 results for orforglipron, a GLP-1 drug candidate licensed from Chugai, showing promising weight loss results...

Innovent Biologics reports impressive 2024 results with revenue up 52% and net loss narrowing by 91%. The company has set an ambitious growth...