Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. </li>
<li>Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.</li>
<li>Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.</li>
</ul>


A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. 
Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.
Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.


Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

<ul>
<li>Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.</li>
<li>Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.</li>
<li>The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.</li>
</ul>


Tobila’s security moat remains intact, but monthly users have stalled near 15 million; pricing and data depth now matter more than penetration.
Solutions rose from roughly 11% of revenue in FY10/2022 to 43% in 9M FY10/2026, shifting the thesis from monopoly durability to reinvestment quality.
The most interesting optionality may be Tobila’s database becoming communications-trust infrastructure, while the biggest risk is organizational complexity quietly eroding incremental returns.


Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.</li>
<li>Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.</li>
<li>All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.</li>
</ul>


The big 3 convenience stores in Japan control 90% of the sector and share will climb as they mop up some of the remaining chains and collaborate with the rest.
Seven Eleven is by far the best performer of the three but both Lawson and Familymart are innovating to create quite different retail operations.
All are seeing the benefits of digitisation of store and supply chain operations, which should enhance profitability, enhanced by new services and revenue streams like retail media.


Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities.  From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.</li>
<li>Declines were led by China &amp; HK Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services, whilst investors also scaled back exposure to Japan Communication Services, Industrials, Health Care and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>Among Global investors, overweight the benchmark in Asia is by far the non-consensus trade.</li>
</ul>


Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities.  From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.
Declines were led by China &amp; HK Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services, whilst investors also scaled back exposure to Japan Communication Services, Industrials, Health Care and Consumer Staples
Among Global investors, overweight the benchmark in Asia is by far the non-consensus trade.


Japan

NTT DOCOMO, INC. provides various types of telecommunication services including cellular phones, satellite mobile communication, and wireless LAN Network. The Company also sells cellular phones, and other equipment.

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NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Asia: Global Investors Lose Faith

Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities. From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

Michael Causton

Tobila Systems Revisited: The Monopoly Is No Longer the Thesis

Tobila’s monopoly survived. The investment case has moved to what management builds with its cash, data, distribution and customer-funded balance...

Urbem Capital

Conbini Wars: Seven Vs Lawson Vs Familymart

​The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...

Michael Causton

Asia: Global Investors Lose Faith

Global managers are at their lowest ever allocation in Asian equities. From a peak of over 17% in 2018, average exposure has fallen to just 12.94%.

Steven Holden

The top 3 convenience stores in Japan dominate the sector and are expected to further increase their market share. They are embracing digitization...