Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil</li>
<li>We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value</li>
<li>Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú</li>
</ul>


We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil
We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value
Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú


Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Sailpoint Technologies Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

Sailpoint Technologies Holdings (SAIL US)

<ul>
<li>The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A. The price range has been upwardly revised from $19.00-$21.00 to $21.00-$23.00.</li>
<li>Cornerstone investor Dragoneer has a strong track record with IPOs that have participated in. </li>
<li>The upwardly-revised price adjustment is a very bullish sign for the IPO and we have adjusted our early expectations on this deal.</li>
</ul>


The underwriters amended the terms of this offering with a S-1/A. The price range has been upwardly revised from $19.00-$21.00 to $21.00-$23.00.
Cornerstone investor Dragoneer has a strong track record with IPOs that have participated in. 
The upwardly-revised price adjustment is a very bullish sign for the IPO and we have adjusted our early expectations on this deal.


SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) -- IPO Price Range Increased; Software Order Book Demand Is Fever Pitch

<ul>
<li>GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging</li>
<li>In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios</li>
<li>CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments</li>
</ul>


GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments


EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

<ul>
<li>We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24</li>
<li>Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward</li>
<li>Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco</li>
</ul>


We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco


Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

<ul>
<li>Bradesco’s quarterly results disappointed the market due to soft interest margins, despite the clear indications of Bradesco’s improving returns and better credit quality metrics</li>
<li>NuBank is a digital bank success story, but it has credit quality challenges and also potential capital constraints, due to its fast loan growth</li>
<li>We remain neutral on Itaú and Banco do Brasil; Banco do Brasil seems attractive on valuations, but it is more exposed to political risk; buy Bradesco, sell Nubank</li>
</ul>


Bradesco’s quarterly results disappointed the market due to soft interest margins, despite the clear indications of Bradesco’s improving returns and better credit quality metrics
NuBank is a digital bank success story, but it has credit quality challenges and also potential capital constraints, due to its fast loan growth
We remain neutral on Itaú and Banco do Brasil; Banco do Brasil seems attractive on valuations, but it is more exposed to political risk; buy Bradesco, sell Nubank


Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco Stays Our High Conviction Buy, Nubank Remains a Sell

Brazil

Nu Holdings Ltd. is a Brazilian financial technology firm that offers digital banking services, including credit and debit cards, mobile payment solutions, and investment platforms. The company provides spending, transactional, savings, investing, borrowing, and protection solutions for individuals and businesses across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. Nu Holdings Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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Nu Holdings (NU US)

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...

Victor Galliano

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) -- IPO Price Range Increased; Software Order Book Demand Is Fever Pitch

Underwriters amend IPO terms, raising price range to $21.00-$23.00; cornerstone investor Dragoneer's track record adds confidence, signaling...

IPO Boutique

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco Stays Our High Conviction Buy, Nubank Remains a Sell

The market has yet to recognise Bradesco’s improving returns and better credit quality, whilst Nubank faces credit quality challenges and...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

​Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...

Victor Galliano

SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) -- IPO Price Range Increased; Software Order Book Demand Is Fever Pitch

​Underwriters amend IPO terms, raising price range to $21.00-$23.00; cornerstone investor Dragoneer's track record adds confidence, signaling...

IPO Boutique

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

​Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

​Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Big-Cap Brazilian Commercial Banks; Bradesco Stays Our High Conviction Buy, Nubank Remains a Sell

​The market has yet to recognise Bradesco’s improving returns and better credit quality, whilst Nubank faces credit quality challenges and...

Victor Galliano

Negative on Nubank due to tough competition and credit risks, bullish on Bradesco with its strong insurance arm, neutral on Banco do Brasil due to...

Underwriters amend IPO terms, raising price range to $21.00-$23.00; cornerstone investor Dragoneer's track record adds confidence, signaling...

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

The market has yet to recognise Bradesco’s improving returns and better credit quality, whilst Nubank faces credit quality challenges and...