Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow</li>
<li>Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card</li>
<li>Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war </li>
</ul>


We first review at  Q1 performance in the major markets we follow
Then our outlook for Q2 with the Iran War outcome the major wild card
Some short-term vs  long term  implications of the ongoing Iran war 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price and export controls.</li>
<li>China is protecting fertilizer supplies for its farmers while the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Global dependence on the Middle East for products such as urea and DAP is high.</li>
<li>Share prices of Chinese fertilizer companies in both the A-share market and Hong Kong have declined since the start of the war.  </li>
</ul>


Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price and export controls.
China is protecting fertilizer supplies for its farmers while the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  Global dependence on the Middle East for products such as urea and DAP is high.
Share prices of Chinese fertilizer companies in both the A-share market and Hong Kong have declined since the start of the war.  


CHINA FERTILIZER INDUSTRY: Waiting for the Harvest!

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook</li>
<li>Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook
Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs


Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.</li><li>Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.</li><li>Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.</li></ul>

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26.Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven days.Mortgage REIT RWT saw the sharpest build, with SI surging 215% to 22.1% of float as borrow dried up.

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.</li>
<li>Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).


Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Canada

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The Company produces and distributes potash, nitrogen, and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial, and feed customers. Nutrien serves the agriculture industry worldwide.

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Nutrien (NTR US)

Q2 Outlook – A Tale of Two Regimes

Our outlook for Q2 2026. Separating the short-term noise from our longer-term investment themes. In Part 1 we look at hard assets while we look at...

Rikki Malik

CHINA FERTILIZER INDUSTRY: Waiting for the Harvest!

Although the conflict in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to surge, Chinese manufacturers have not benefited because of Beijing's price...

David Mudd

Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the action in stock and commodity markets impacted by the...

Rikki Malik

Bears Charge Into Energy and Real Estate; Silver Shorts Flee

Short sellers made decisive moves this week ending September 26. Energy refining ETF CRAK saw SI hit 36.8% of float - up 38% in seven...

ORTEX Market Intel

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs $SPX $QQQ $NDX; 10- and 30-Year Treasury Yields Rolling Over?; Watching $209-210 resistance...

Vermilion Research

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