Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.</li>
<li>We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.</li>
<li>Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500</li>
</ul>


As discussed for two weeks, we see more and more signs leading us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which was expected support from our 4/8/25 Compass.
We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well.
Our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500


Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nutrien recently reported its financial results for the first half of 2024, highlighted by mixed performances across its various segments.</li><li>The company, a global leader in providing crop inputs and services, recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion, driven by increased crop input margins, strong global demand for potash, and lower operating costs.</li><li>Potash segment performance was robust in terms of volume but faced challenges from lower benchmark prices which were partly offset by reduced production costs due to increased mine automation.</li></ul>

Nutrien recently reported its financial results for the first half of 2024, highlighted by mixed performances across its various segments.The company, a global leader in providing crop inputs and services, recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion, driven by increased crop input margins, strong global demand for potash, and lower operating costs.Potash segment performance was robust in terms of volume but faced challenges from lower benchmark prices which were partly offset by reduced production costs due to increased mine automation.

Nutrien Ltd.: Expansion in Proprietary Products and Digital Solutions! - Major Drivers

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


<ul><li>Nutrien reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion for Q1 2024, attributed to higher margins in crop inputs, increased fertiliser production, greater sales volumes, and lowered operating costs.</li><li>The company's Ag Solutions division reported a 15% increase per tonne margins compared to Q1 2023, supported by robust grower demand and a return to standardised margins in North America.</li><li>In relation to operational and market developments, Nutrien increased crop protection inventory in Brazil to manage high inventory levels and reduce operating costs.</li></ul>

Nutrien reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion for Q1 2024, attributed to higher margins in crop inputs, increased fertiliser production, greater sales volumes, and lowered operating costs.The company's Ag Solutions division reported a 15% increase per tonne margins compared to Q1 2023, supported by robust grower demand and a return to standardised margins in North America.In relation to operational and market developments, Nutrien increased crop protection inventory in Brazil to manage high inventory levels and reduce operating costs.

Nutrien Ltd.: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Canada

Nutrien Ltd. provides crop inputs and services. The Company produces and distributes potash, nitrogen, and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial, and feed customers. Nutrien serves the agriculture industry worldwide.

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Nutrien (NTR US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on SPX, Now Upgrading I.T. Outlook to Bullish Also

Lockout Rally Continues; Still Short-Term Bullish on $SPX, Now Also Upgrading Intermediate-Term Outlook to Bullish; Upgrading Technology $XLK $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

Nutrien Ltd.: Expansion in Proprietary Products and Digital Solutions! - Major Drivers

Nutrien recently reported its financial results for the first half of 2024, highlighted by mixed performances across its various segments. The...

Baptista Research

May Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Nutrien Ltd.: Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Nutrien reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion for Q1 2024, attributed to higher margins in crop inputs, increased fertiliser production,...

Baptista Research

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