Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.</li>
<li>My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.
My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.</li>
<li>Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.</li>
<li>TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?</li>
</ul>


This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.
Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.
TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.</li>
<li>Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.</li>
<li>Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.</li>
</ul>


We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.
Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.
Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. </li>
<li>ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. 
ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.


<ul>
<li>ICTK is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in May. The IPO price range is from 13,000 won to 16,000 won. </li>
<li>According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company after the listing is 171 billion won to 210 billion won. </li>
<li>ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology. </li>
</ul>


ICTK is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in May. The IPO price range is from 13,000 won to 16,000 won. 
According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company after the listing is 171 billion won to 210 billion won. 
ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology. 


Taiwan

Nuvoton Technology Corp. manudfactures a wide range of semiconductor products. The Company's products lines are Consumer Electronics integrated Circuits (IC) and Computer IC.

Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

I expect the Top 5 inflow names to outperform the Top 5 outflow names over the next few weeks. The base date for the June 2024 review is 27th May...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

ICTK IPO Preview

ICTK is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ. The IPO price range is from 13,000 won to 16,000 won. ICTK is a security company specializing...

Douglas Kim