Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 17 May, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.6% and a one-way trade of US$1.13bn.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased on the potential adds and potential deletes and covering will lead to rally in some stocks while providing support in others at rebalance implementation.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 17 May, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.6% and a one-way trade of US$1.13bn.
Shorts have increased on the potential adds and potential deletes and covering will lead to rally in some stocks while providing support in others at rebalance implementation.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 13% One-Way Turnover & US$2.27bn Trade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology called PUF which is a cutting-edge technology during the chip manufacturing process.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation is implied market cap of 376.8 billion won or target price of 28,694 won, which is 43% higher than the IPO price (20,000 won).</li>
</ul>


ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
ICTK is a security company specializing in Internet of Things (IoT) based on physical copy prevention technology called PUF which is a cutting-edge technology during the chip manufacturing process.
Our base case valuation is implied market cap of 376.8 billion won or target price of 28,694 won, which is 43% higher than the IPO price (20,000 won).


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.</li>
<li>My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.
My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. </li>
<li>ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
Our base case valuation is based on P/S multiple of 20.8x using our estimated sales of 18.1 billion won in 2025. 
ICTK's operating margin improved from -129.9% in 2022 to -38.2% in 2023. We estimate its operating margin to improve further to -12.4% in 2024 and 17.7% in 2025.


Taiwan

Nuvoton Technology Corp. manudfactures a wide range of semiconductor products. The Company's products lines are Consumer Electronics integrated Circuits (IC) and Computer IC.

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Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 13% One-Way Turnover & US$2.27bn Trade

The ETF could have 5 constituent changes in June. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

ICTK IPO Book Building Results Analysis

ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

I expect the Top 5 inflow names to outperform the Top 5 outflow names over the next few weeks. The base date for the June 2024 review is 27th May...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 13% One-Way Turnover & US$2.27bn Trade

The ETF could have 5 constituent changes in June. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 12.6% and a...

Brian Freitas

ICTK IPO Book Building Results Analysis

ICTK reported excellent book building results. ICTK's IPO price has been determined at 20,000 won, which is 25% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

I expect the Top 5 inflow names to outperform the Top 5 outflow names over the next few weeks. The base date for the June 2024 review is 27th May...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ICTK IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of ICTK is target price of 28,694 won, which is 79% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: 13% One-Way Turnover & US$2.27bn Trade