Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.</li><li>The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.</li><li>The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.</li></ul>

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption, marking a defining moment in its trajectory as a dominant AI chipmaker.The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue surge to $44.1 billion, outperforming expectations despite the mid-April U.S. government ban on H20 GPU sales to China.The data center segment remained the primary growth engine, rising 73% to $39.1 billion, driven by rising AI infrastructure demand and the adoption of its cutting-edge Blackwell architecture.

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ</li>
<li>NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues</li>
<li>Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.


NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

<ul>
<li>Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. </li>
<li>He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East</li>
<li>NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.</li>
</ul>


Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. 
He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.


NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. </li>
<li>The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.</li>
<li>This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


Large impact of H20 discontinued sales to China. Including the impact, 1-2Q26 are inline with consensus. Adding back the H20 missed revenues, 1-2Q26 would have been ~10% above Consensus. 
The ramp of GB200 is very impressive, demonstrating Jensen's point: "it drives down cost and improves quality of response with higher speed". The Good Times Keep Rolling.
This means that Consensus most likely does not need to revise down FY26 forecasts. This means that the stock is cheap-ish, trading at 31x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27.


Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>By the time this insight is published, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.</li>
<li>The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112</li>
<li>If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.</li>
</ul>


By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.


All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China...

William Keating

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

NVIDIA Corp's earnings are in focus: many expect high volatility post-earnings. In regard to that, our model sees support targets at 123-112 and...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia’s $3.4 Trillion AI Empire Is Just Getting Started—You Won’t Believe What’s Next!

Nvidia’s first-quarter results for fiscal 2026 showcased an extraordinary ability to maintain momentum in the face of geopolitical disruption,...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China...

William Keating

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Nvidia 1Q26: The Good Times Keep Rolling, the Stock Is Not Expensive

​Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.

Nicolas Baratte

All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

NVIDIA Corp's earnings are in focus: many expect high volatility post-earnings. In regard to that, our model sees support targets at 123-112 and...

Nico Rosti

Discontinued H20 sales to China impact Q1-Q2 earnings, but results / guidance are inline with Consensus. Stock valuation not expensive.