AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.</li>
<li>China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.</li>
<li>While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.


Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In recent months, Nvidia has quietly transformed from the undisputed leader in AI semiconductors into a formidable new player in cloud computing.</li><li>What began with DGX Cloud—launched two years ago as an infrastructure offering focused on AI workloads—has evolved into a full-fledged attempt to reshape how cloud services are consumed and delivered.</li><li>The latest development is the launch of DGX Cloud Lepton, a marketplace designed to aggregate unused GPU capacity across a network of Nvidia-aligned cloud providers, including CoreWeave, Lambda, and Crusoe.</li></ul>

In recent months, Nvidia has quietly transformed from the undisputed leader in AI semiconductors into a formidable new player in cloud computing.What began with DGX Cloud—launched two years ago as an infrastructure offering focused on AI workloads—has evolved into a full-fledged attempt to reshape how cloud services are consumed and delivered.The latest development is the launch of DGX Cloud Lepton, a marketplace designed to aggregate unused GPU capacity across a network of Nvidia-aligned cloud providers, including CoreWeave, Lambda, and Crusoe.

Nvidia’s Silent Cloud Takeover: How the AI Chip King is Disrupting Amazon, Google & Microsoft

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>  stock keeps climbing towards an hypothetical 5 trillion $ market cap, as the artificial intelligence (AI) trade accelerates.</li>
<li>Unconfirmed rumors say <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> has acquired CentML, a machine learning startup that provides an optimization platform to enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AI model training and deployment.</li>
<li>After 5 weeks up in a row and a furious, vertical rally, <strong>the stock begins to appear OVERBOUGHT, according to our model.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)  stock keeps climbing towards an hypothetical 5 trillion $ market cap, as the artificial intelligence (AI) trade accelerates.
Unconfirmed rumors say NVIDIA has acquired CentML, a machine learning startup that provides an optimization platform to enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of AI model training and deployment.
After 5 weeks up in a row and a furious, vertical rally, the stock begins to appear OVERBOUGHT, according to our model.



NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the June 2025 rebalance event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$700mn for June 2025.


[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits</li>
<li>Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. </li>
<li>Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia H20 sales to China were barred last month. Nvidia first mentioned designing a new China-specific chip. Maybe not: it looks very difficult to work around the updated US limits
Semiconductor design software was barred last week. Synopsys suspended its guidance. My industry checks suggests that the ban applies to Xiaomi (ie the new smartphone chip) and to Lenovo. 
Hanmi Semi stopped shipping TC Bonder to Chinese clients. This is critical to make HBM memory that goes into AI processors.


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Nvidia’s Silent Cloud Takeover: How the AI Chip King is Disrupting Amazon, Google & Microsoft

In recent months, Nvidia has quietly transformed from the undisputed leader in AI semiconductors into a formidable new player in cloud...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

NVIDIA hit all-time highs on Friday, approaching a $5 trillion market cap amid CentML acquisition rumors—but the stock is now overbought. Brace for...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

​Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Nvidia’s Silent Cloud Takeover: How the AI Chip King is Disrupting Amazon, Google & Microsoft

In recent months, Nvidia has quietly transformed from the undisputed leader in AI semiconductors into a formidable new player in cloud...

Baptista Research

NVIDIA (NVDA US) At All-Time High Acquires CentML: Weekly Tactical Outlook (June 30 – July 4)

NVIDIA hit all-time highs on Friday, approaching a $5 trillion market cap amid CentML acquisition rumors—but the stock is now overbought. Brace for...

Nico Rosti

[Quiddity Index] MV US Semiconductor Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

No index changes to the MVIS US Semiconductor 25 Index but $700mm of capping flows makes for a bit of interest. There will be other semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors Are Getting Worse

​Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Nvidia might not have a workaround for a new China-specific chip. EDA software ban also for consumer electronics Xiaomi, Lenovo. Hanmi Semi halted...