Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC's top 5 clients for 2024 are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>.</li>
<li>Smartphone orders continue to dominate at TSMC, with QCOM and MediaTek being key clients.</li>
<li>Looking ahead to 2025, Intel Corp (INTC US) is expected to rely more on TSMC, potentially leading to changes in TSMC's client ranking.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's top 5 clients for 2024 are Apple (AAPL US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US, Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).
Smartphone orders continue to dominate at TSMC, with QCOM and MediaTek being key clients.
Looking ahead to 2025, Intel Corp (INTC US) is expected to rely more on TSMC, potentially leading to changes in TSMC's client ranking.


AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA's dominance in AI GPUs, with 80% market share, has driven data center revenue growth by 427% YoY, with analysts expecting a 112% YoY revenue increase to $28.68 billion.</li>
<li>NVIDIA's GPUs are crucial for AI workloads, with significant adoption by cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft Azure. AI-specific chips are expected to drive 40% of 2024 revenue.</li>
<li>47 out of 61 analysts rate NVIDIA a strong buy, with average 12-month price targets showing 13% upside, reflecting confidence in its AI leadership despite potential market volatility.</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA's dominance in AI GPUs, with 80% market share, has driven data center revenue growth by 427% YoY, with analysts expecting a 112% YoY revenue increase to $28.68 billion.
NVIDIA's GPUs are crucial for AI workloads, with significant adoption by cloud giants like AWS and Microsoft Azure. AI-specific chips are expected to drive 40% of 2024 revenue.
47 out of 61 analysts rate NVIDIA a strong buy, with average 12-month price targets showing 13% upside, reflecting confidence in its AI leadership despite potential market volatility.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] NVIDIA To Maintain AI GPU Leadership As Revenues Surge

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?</li>
<li>Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand</li>
<li>AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan's server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?
Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand
AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan's server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.</li><li>Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend</li><li>There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.</li></ul>

First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividendThere was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients

TSMC's top 5 clients for 2024 include AAPL, AMD, QCOM, Mediatek, and NVDA, with smartphone orders dominating and shifts in client ranking expected...

Patrick Liao

[Q2 Earnings Preview] NVIDIA To Maintain AI GPU Leadership As Revenues Surge

Nvidia’s Q2 earnings are expected to reveal a 112% YoY revenue increase to $28.68B, driven by explosive growth in data centre revenues and robust...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell to soon release results, while Micron considers Taiwan expansion and AMD acquires U.S. server integrator in industry of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it. Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 Top Clients

​TSMC's top 5 clients for 2024 include AAPL, AMD, QCOM, Mediatek, and NVDA, with smartphone orders dominating and shifts in client ranking expected...

Patrick Liao

[Q2 Earnings Preview] NVIDIA To Maintain AI GPU Leadership As Revenues Surge

Nvidia’s Q2 earnings are expected to reveal a 112% YoY revenue increase to $28.68B, driven by explosive growth in data centre revenues and robust...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell to soon release results, while Micron considers Taiwan expansion and AMD acquires U.S. server integrator in industry of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it. Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC's top 5 clients for 2024 include AAPL, AMD, QCOM, Mediatek, and NVDA, with smartphone orders dominating and shifts in client ranking expected...