Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>There is US$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> while there will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>. </li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> will offset part of the potential passive buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and other similar ETFs.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) while there will be passive buying in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Intel Corp (INTC US). 
The selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will offset part of the potential passive buying from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and other similar ETFs.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in terms of free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> ranks higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a> a week later.</li>
</ul>


The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF tracks the Technology Select Sector Index and has an AUM of over US$70bn.

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has broken through the US$3tn market cap barrier and is very close to Apple (AAPL US) in terms of free float market cap.
If NVIDIA ranks higher than Apple on free float market cap at the close on Friday, there could be huge inflows to NVIDIA and outflows from Apple a week later.


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 12 June, SK Telecom (017670 KS) confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with its competitor Rebellions by end of this year.</li>
<li>Sapeon and Rebellions' largest global competitor is Nvidia. A key aim of the merger is to challenge Nvidia and try to take away its global dominance in AI chips.</li>
<li>If the combined Sapeon and Rebellion can take away just 1% market share resulting in 1% of Nvidia's market cap, this would suggest valuation of US$31 billion.</li>
</ul>


On 12 June, SK Telecom (017670 KS) confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with its competitor Rebellions by end of this year.
Sapeon and Rebellions' largest global competitor is Nvidia. A key aim of the merger is to challenge Nvidia and try to take away its global dominance in AI chips.
If the combined Sapeon and Rebellion can take away just 1% market share resulting in 1% of Nvidia's market cap, this would suggest valuation of US$31 billion.


Proposed Merger Between Rebellions and Sapeon - To Challenge Nvidia

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Apple Announces New AI Features at WDC; Shares Surge to New All-Time Highs</li>
<li>Top Movers: Major Computex Exhibitors See Share Prices Fall Despite Strong Presence</li>
<li>Computex 2024: Chip Companies Notably Competing to Win PC Makers</li>
</ul>


Apple Announces New AI Features at WDC; Shares Surge to New All-Time Highs
Top Movers: Major Computex Exhibitors See Share Prices Fall Despite Strong Presence
Computex 2024: Chip Companies Notably Competing to Win PC Makers


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Much ado has been made about Nvidia’s valuation recently surpassing Apple’s, standing at a gobsmacking $3 trillion.</li><li>For context, it would take you nearly 100,000 years to count to 1 trillion.</li><li>But where there’s sky there’s limit, and NVDA is no exception. So the question begs: has NVDA’s valuation flown too close to the sun?</li></ul>

Much ado has been made about Nvidia’s valuation recently surpassing Apple’s, standing at a gobsmacking $3 trillion.For context, it would take you nearly 100,000 years to count to 1 trillion.But where there’s sky there’s limit, and NVDA is no exception. So the question begs: has NVDA’s valuation flown too close to the sun?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Proposed Merger Between Rebellions and Sapeon - To Challenge Nvidia

On 12 June, SK Telecom confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with Rebellions by end of this year. A key aim of the merger is to take...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA's $3T Valuation: Absurd Or Not?

Much ado has been made about Nvidia’s valuation recently surpassing Apple’s, standing at a gobsmacking $3 trillion. For context, it would take you...

Value Investing

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

Capping changes in June result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.2% and in a one-way trade of US$1.16bn. There is US$1bn to sell in NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): NVIDIA Could Flip Places with Apple; HUGE Flows

The XLK ETF has an AUM of US$70bn. Quarter-end diversification requirement rules could set off huge passive flows of over US$10bn for NVIDIA and...

Brian Freitas

Proposed Merger Between Rebellions and Sapeon - To Challenge Nvidia

On 12 June, SK Telecom confirmed that its affiliate Sapeon plans to merge with Rebellions by end of this year. A key aim of the merger is to take...

Douglas Kim

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Unveils New AI Capabilities at WDC; PC Makers Feel the Love from Chip CEOs

​Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA's $3T Valuation: Absurd Or Not?

Much ado has been made about Nvidia’s valuation recently surpassing Apple’s, standing at a gobsmacking $3 trillion. For context, it would take you...

Value Investing

Apple's new AI features at WDC lead to record high shares; major Computex exhibitors see share prices drop despite strong presence; chip companies...