Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number</li>
<li>NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%</li>
<li>Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?</li>
</ul>


Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, up 34% QoQ and up a staggering 206% from the year ago period. It was also ~$2 billion higher than the guided number
NVIDIA’s current quarter forecast was for a further revenue raise of almost $2 billion with gross margins staying roughly flat at 74.5%
Share price reaction was negative, closing down 2.5% the following day. But why?


NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed</li>
<li>This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage</li>
<li>Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins</li>
</ul>


HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed
This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage
Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins


Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 2024</li><li>2) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months</li><li>3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn), alleviating concerns on supply constraints and impact on China sales. Key highlights include: 1) FY4Q24E guidance beat on stronger topline/margin with strong AI demand and robust product pipeline into 20242) China’s sales to drop significantly in 4Q23, largely offset by strong growth in other regions, and new regulation-compliant solutions will be available for China (20-25% of DC sales) in the next few months3) mgmt. guided continued chip capacity expansion to meet growth, and expected data center revenue to grow through 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn)

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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NVIDIA. Another Beat & Raise, Yet Shares Slide. But Why?

Q3FY24 revenues of 18.1 billion, +34% QoQ & up staggering 206% from the year ago period.Current quarter forecast +$2 billion QoQ. What didn't the...

William Keating

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

​HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

China Technology – NVIDIA FY3Q24: Another Stunning Quarter on Robust AI Demand

NVIDIA reported another strong beat against elevated expectations, along with a strong outlook (guided 4Q revenue of US$20bn, vs consensus US$17.9bn)

CMB International

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...