Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In</h2><p>After 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…</p>

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd performance on Taiwan semiconductor index (TWSESCI Index) at 18x P/E driven largely by GPU guys for cloud AI training and Cryptocurrency mining, EUV related equipment vendors, memory price hiking for shortage, cloud vendors web service expansion, fuel car migration to EV/autonomous and surely new features on smartphone (3D sensing, wireless charging…

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

<h2>TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum</h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11230" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1">Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT)</a> is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 today, inviting the key customers and supplier (which total have over US$1.2tn market cap) to join a panel discussion. The topic of the panel discussion is “Semiconductors: the Next 10 Years”. Chairman Dr. Morris Chang has personally moderated a discussion between Jensen Huang (President &amp; CEO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia Corp (NVDA US)</a> ), Steve Mollenkopf (CEO…</p>

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration ForumTaiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT) is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 today, inviting the key customers and supplier (which total have over US$1.2tn market cap) to join a panel discussion. The topic of the panel discussion is “Semiconductors: the Next 10 Years”. Chairman Dr. Morris Chang has personally moderated a discussion between Jensen Huang (President &amp; CEO, Nvidia Corp (NVDA US) ), Steve Mollenkopf (CEO…

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration - Takeaways from Panel Discussion on Semis: The Next 10 Years

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.</li>
<li>It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.</li>
<li>I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…</li>
</ul>


The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to current first movers from Tesla to Nvidia look excessive.
It’s striking that Wal-Mart and GM are outperforming Amazon and Tesla, while Intel is outperforming AMD as it reinvents itself as an AI player - some incumbents are adapting fast to disruption risks.
I’ve been covering AI regularly since 2013/4 as a theme, but every IB tech analyst is now an…


Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.</p><p>It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.</p>

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM Research's "Tech and Media Trends 2018" report, which covers the top 600 TMT stocks globally and all the investment themes driving their earnings. Using our unique "thematic engine", we quantify the impact of these themes on each of our 18 TMT subsectors, of which semiconductors is one.

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>What's new?</h2><p>According to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US)</a>'s press release yesterday, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles in 3Q17, up 19% q/q and up 5% y/y (14,065 were Model S, up 17% q/q but down 12% y/y, and 11,865 were Model X, up 18% q/q and 35% y/y, 220 were Model 3). Tesla now expects 2H Model S/X deliveries to exceed that by several thousand vehicles than 1H's 47,077 with a total about 100,000 Model S/X in 2017 or 31% y/y increase.</p><p>Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model…</p>

What's new?According to Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US)'s press release yesterday, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles in 3Q17, up 19% q/q and up 5% y/y (14,065 were Model S, up 17% q/q but down 12% y/y, and 11,865 were Model X, up 18% q/q and 35% y/y, 220 were Model 3). Tesla now expects 2H Model S/X deliveries to exceed that by several thousand vehicles than 1H's 47,077 with a total about 100,000 Model S/X in 2017 or 31% y/y increase.Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model…

Tesla - Missed Model 3 Deliveries as Expected; More Value at Its Suppliers than Tesla Itself

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Semiconductor - Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick In

Couple of Early Signs Confirm a Seasonal Correction to Kick InAfter 37% ytd performance on Phila semiconductor index (SOX) at 23x P/E and 34% ytd...

Andrew Lu

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration - Takeaways from Panel Discussion on Semis: The Next 10 Years

TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration ForumTaiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (2330 TT) is holding its 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October...

Andrew Lu

Incumbent 'Second Mover' Advantage as AI Hype Risks Reality Check...

The aggregation effects that fuelled social media/search and e-commerce platforms are not relevant in hardware and the premia being applied to...

Sean Maher

Semiconductor Industry Trends

This reports looks at the key trends driving stocks in the global semiconductor industry, identifying winners and losers.It is extracted from CM...

CM Research

Tesla - Missed Model 3 Deliveries as Expected; More Value at Its Suppliers than Tesla Itself

What's new?According to Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA US)'s press release yesterday, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles in 3Q17, up 19% q/q and up 5% y/y...

Andrew Lu

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