Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former</li>
<li>That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install</li>
<li>Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!</li>
</ul>


OpenAI and NVIDIA announced an audacious alliance under which the latter will invest $100 billion in the former
That investment will be staged to coincide with each completed gigawatt of compute capacity, up to ten gigawatts in total, which the two companies are planning to jointly install
Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!


NVIDIA'S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.</li>
<li>Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.</li>
<li>If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.</li>
</ul>


China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.</li><li>In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.</li><li>The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.</li></ul>

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

<ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation's recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by widespread adoption of its comprehensive product suite across various sectors.</li><li>The company reported a total revenue of $46.7 billion, surpassing its expectations with substantial growth noted in its data center segment, which increased by 56% year-over-year.</li><li>The rollout of new technology, including the Blackwell platform and GB300 systems, was cited as a key driver of this growth, facilitating NVIDIA's expansion in the AI infrastructure space.</li></ul>

NVIDIA Corporation's recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by widespread adoption of its comprehensive product suite across various sectors.The company reported a total revenue of $46.7 billion, surpassing its expectations with substantial growth noted in its data center segment, which increased by 56% year-over-year.The rollout of new technology, including the Blackwell platform and GB300 systems, was cited as a key driver of this growth, facilitating NVIDIA's expansion in the AI infrastructure space.

NVIDIA Inside the Future: How Reasoning Agentic AI Could Demand 1,000x More Power!

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

NVIDIA'S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think

Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

William Keating

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA Inside the Future: How Reasoning Agentic AI Could Demand 1,000x More Power!

NVIDIA Corporation's recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NVIDIA'S Genius Partnership With OpenAI May Be About More Than You Think

Is this NVIDIA cutting out the middleman and setting up their very own private hyperscale enterprise to lease their GPUs directly to OpenAI? Uh oh!

William Keating

Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

​China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs. In a significant...

Baptista Research

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA Inside the Future: How Reasoning Agentic AI Could Demand 1,000x More Power!

NVIDIA Corporation's recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 highlighted a record quarter in terms of total revenue, driven by...

Baptista Research

China is strategically pushing foreign tech out of its supply chain, with Nvidia facing challenges and domestic chipmakers benefiting. Another ban...

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...