Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  </li>
<li>2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.</li>
<li>Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).</li>
</ul>


2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).


SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>DRAM -- Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.</li>
<li>NAND Flash -- Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets</li>
</ul>


DRAM -- Global Memory Market Has Regained Momentum in Mid-2025, Driven by a Sharp Upswing in Spot Prices.
NAND Flash -- Strategic Outsourcing, High ASP Segments Drive Memory Controller Specialist Gains
Conclusion -- Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Growth in Memory Markets


Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts - The Memory Market Finds a New Gear

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes</li>
<li>Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products</li>
<li>We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally</li>
</ul>


TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally


TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts - The Memory Market Finds a New Gear

Global memory market sees resurgence in mid-2025 with DRAM spot prices rising, while memory controller specialists benefit from strategic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

​Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Memory Monitor: Soaring DRAM Prices and Enterprise Flash Shifts - The Memory Market Finds a New Gear

​Global memory market sees resurgence in mid-2025 with DRAM spot prices rising, while memory controller specialists benefit from strategic...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

​TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Global memory market sees resurgence in mid-2025 with DRAM spot prices rising, while memory controller specialists benefit from strategic...

TSMC's record high sales and strategic positioning in advanced nodes make it an indispensable enabler of AI and advanced compute products,...