IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaizu-suisankagaku-industry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20044:1" rel="noopener">Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seiko-pmc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13752:1" rel="noopener">Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Keiyo Co Ltd (8168 JP), 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), IMAX China Holding (1970 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP). 
Lowest spreads  Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), Seiko Pmc Corp (4963 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) - NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family at HK$9.15 or HK$9.47 per share (with a potential 2HFY2023 dividend of HK$0.32 per share).</li>
<li>The pre-condition related to regulatory approval from the Insurance Authority of Hong Kong and the Bermuda Monetary Authority is a formality due to the Cheng family's current sway over NWS.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by independent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> shareholders which is likely as the offer is attractive, reduces NWD’s gearing and results in a special dividend.  </li>
</ul>



Nws Holdings (659 HK) announced a pre-conditional voluntary general offer from the Cheng family at HK$9.15 or HK$9.47 per share (with a potential 2HFY2023 dividend of HK$0.32 per share).
The pre-condition related to regulatory approval from the Insurance Authority of Hong Kong and the Bermuda Monetary Authority is a formality due to the Cheng family's current sway over NWS.
The key condition is approval by independent New World Development (17 HK) shareholders which is likely as the offer is attractive, reduces NWD’s gearing and results in a special dividend.  


NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Conditional VGO from the Cheng Family

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Chow Tai Fook (CTFE) has made a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0627/2023062700091.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">voluntary cash Offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a>'s (NWD) 60.88%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS Holdings (659 HK)</a> at HK$9.15/share, a 22.2% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>CTFE and connected parties hold 45.24% of NWD, therefore the parent is effectively injecting ~US$2.75bn of cash into NWD for its NWS stake.</li>
<li>The Offer is subject to regulatory approvals in Hong Kong and Bermuda. These will not be an issue given CTFE is NWD's ultimate shareholder. </li>
</ul>


Chow Tai Fook (CTFE) has made a voluntary cash Offer for New World Development (17 HK)'s (NWD) 60.88%-held NWS Holdings (659 HK) at HK$9.15/share, a 22.2% premium to undisturbed. 
CTFE and connected parties hold 45.24% of NWD, therefore the parent is effectively injecting ~US$2.75bn of cash into NWD for its NWS stake.
The Offer is subject to regulatory approvals in Hong Kong and Bermuda. These will not be an issue given CTFE is NWD's ultimate shareholder. 


Chow Tai Fooks' Offer For NWS (659 HK). Buy NWD (17 HK)

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the lifting of the "spicy" property cooling measures last week, New World Development (17 HK) has plumbed fresh P/B lows after a (very) brief respite. 
Preceding my comments on NWD are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

Hong Kong

NWS Holdings Limited operates businesses under three main divisions: Service, Infrastructure, and Ports. Its Service division comprises facilities, contracting, transport, financial, and environmental. The Infrastructure portfolio includes roads and bridges, energy, and water treatment and waste management. Its port division includes container handling, logistics, and warehousing.

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Nws Holdings (659 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (02 Oct) - NWS, Mason, IMAX China, Keiyo, System Info, Toyo, Symbio, Allkem

This week, the highest gross spreads are Keiyo (58.3%), 111 (40.8%), Eoflow (22.4%), Symbio (19.3%), IMAX China (19.0%), JSR (8.3%), Boustead...

Arun George

NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Conditional VGO from the Cheng Family

The pre-condition (regulatory approvals) and key condition (NWD shareholder approval) pose a low risk. At the current price of HK$8.89, the spread...

Arun George

Chow Tai Fooks' Offer For NWS (659 HK). Buy NWD (17 HK)

Assuming the final divi of HK$0.31/share is added on top of the offer price; and payment around 7 months out, I'd be buying up to $8.95 or so (10%...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Troubling Signs For NWD (17 HK)

I might have been a tad premature suggesting that NWD will eke out gains after the government abandoned the property cooking measures. One wonders...

David Blennerhassett

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