Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.</li>
<li>Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.</li>
<li>Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.</li>
</ul>


If we care about PMI, we have to care about Automotive and Industrial Semiconductor. Cautiousness about high inventories and slowing end-demand slowly emerged in 1H24. 4Q guidance is a firework.
Renesas: 1Q24 “the Q1 bottom has not changed”. 2Q24 “more cautious outlook”. 3Q “we need to step on the brakes more. End demand, more than expected, became weaker”.
Do we buy stocks when valuations are low or when downward revisions are over? These stocks are cheap, but Consensus will continue cutting till 2Q25, in our view.


NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard’s 4Q24 revenue is expected to drop by mid-to-high single digits, with GM at about 27-28%.</li>
<li>For the products segment wise, the PMIC (power management IC) remains stable, while the Display Driver IC may decline by mid-teens QoQ.  </li>
<li>The Chinese government seems to be subsidizing local fabless orders, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current prosperity and the possibility of excess inventory in the near future.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard’s 4Q24 revenue is expected to drop by mid-to-high single digits, with GM at about 27-28%.
For the products segment wise, the PMIC (power management IC) remains stable, while the Display Driver IC may decline by mid-teens QoQ.  
The Chinese government seems to be subsidizing local fabless orders, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current prosperity and the possibility of excess inventory in the near future.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. </li>
<li>TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. </li>
<li>SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. </li>
</ul>


The price of ASML EUV machine is increasing as thruput (wafer / hour) is increasing. 
TSMC 3nm is fully booked in 2025. Here is the list of clients / chips. 
SiC and MCU over-investments in China? Very likely. China is limiting SiC investments. 


Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved</li>
<li>Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues</li>
<li>A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm's gross margins</li>
</ul>


SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm's gross margins


Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here's Why.

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.</li>
<li>Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.</li>
<li>Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Netherlands

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.

Patrick Liao

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here's Why.

China SAMR's lengthy review process would hinder deal approval, Intel's existential crisis includes issues in new Foundry division, theoretical...

Neil Campling

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NXP, Renesas, STMicro: Only Bad News. Auto & Industrial Semi Firms Give Poor Signals on End-Demand.

​Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Nicolas Baratte

Vanguard (5347.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Is Lower than Consensus; DDIC Is Declining.

​Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.

Patrick Liao

Tech News This Week. ASML, TSMC, Intel, SiC Capacity, MCU in China

ASML price increase in 2025. TSMC 3nm Order Surge Expected in 2025. Intel's Next-Gen Panther Lake CPUs Handed to Lenovo. China restrictions on SiC...

Nicolas Baratte

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here's Why.

​China SAMR's lengthy review process would hinder deal approval, Intel's existential crisis includes issues in new Foundry division, theoretical...

Neil Campling

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

​Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

Cautious outlook for Auto and Industrial Semiconductor due to high inventories and slowing end-demand. NXP, Renesas and STMicro stocks look cheap...

Vanguard's 4Q24 revenue expected to drop, Chinese government subsidies raise concerns about sustainability and excess inventory.

China SAMR's lengthy review process would hinder deal approval, Intel's existential crisis includes issues in new Foundry division, theoretical...

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.