Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018:<ul><li> Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is still a positive rise, but it is one-third of the 2017 pace. 2017 proved a spectacular year for inflows</li><li>Threats of US Fed and ECB Reverse QE or ‘quantitative squeezing’ will be offset by net expansion of Central Bank balance sheets in EM and Japan</li><li>Reverse QE by Central Banks is not helpful, but cross-border flows pose by far the bigger threat for asset markets this year</li><li>China (27% share) is the most important economy for Global Liquidity, both directly and indirectly through its impact on the Emerging Market flows</li><li>At a 66% share of liquidity flows, the US dollar (with its surrogates) remains de facto the most important currency Worldwide. But if the Chinese Yuan is included based on China’s economic importance, it would immediately take a 26% point market share away from the US dollar. Gold would soar in price?</li></ul>

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018: Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is still a positive rise, but it is one-third of the 2017 pace. 2017 proved a spectacular year for inflowsThreats of US Fed and ECB Reverse QE or ‘quantitative squeezing’ will be offset by net expansion of Central Bank balance sheets in EM and JapanReverse QE by Central Banks is not helpful, but cross-border flows pose by far the bigger threat for asset markets this yearChina (27% share) is the most important economy for Global Liquidity, both directly and indirectly through its impact on the Emerging Market flowsAt a 66% share of liquidity flows, the US dollar (with its surrogates) remains de facto the most important currency Worldwide. But if the Chinese Yuan is included based on China’s economic importance, it would immediately take a 26% point market share away from the US dollar. Gold would soar in price?

'Quantitative Squeezing': Prospects for Global Liquidity in 2018

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

The RBNZ must revamp the monetary policy outlook this week facing a political minefield.  The starting point for inflation is significantly higher than previously forecast, and it is now close to target.  The exchange rate has fallen to a low since mid-2016 and is likely to place some upward pressure on inflation. The economy is sending mixed signals with booming employment growth, and a tightening labour market, but a slump in business confidence generated by political uncertainty and a weaker housing market.  Retail sales have been surprisingly weak, even though consumer confidence has remained solid.  The new government has proposed more spending on infrastructure and affordable housing, but wants to slow immigration and further dampen the housing market.  The RBNZ may feel wary of antagonising the new government as it prepares to change the RBNZ mandate and add a monetary policy board with outside directors.  You might say the new ‘Acting’ Governor Spencer, leading his first MPS and press conference, has been thrown in the deep-end.  He may need to bring forward rate hike forecasts modestly and risk unwanted appreciation in the NZD.

The RBNZ must revamp the monetary policy outlook this week facing a political minefield.  The starting point for inflation is significantly higher than previously forecast, and it is now close to target.  The exchange rate has fallen to a low since mid-2016 and is likely to place some upward pressure on inflation. The economy is sending mixed signals with booming employment growth, and a tightening labour market, but a slump in business confidence generated by political uncertainty and a weaker housing market.  Retail sales have been surprisingly weak, even though consumer confidence has remained solid.  The new government has proposed more spending on infrastructure and affordable housing, but wants to slow immigration and further dampen the housing market.  The RBNZ may feel wary of antagonising the new government as it prepares to change the RBNZ mandate and add a monetary policy board with outside directors.  You might say the new ‘Acting’ Governor Spencer, leading his first MPS and press conference, has been thrown in the deep-end.  He may need to bring forward rate hike forecasts modestly and risk unwanted appreciation in the NZD.

RBNZ Governor Spencer Thrown into the Deep End

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD.  In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD, long positions and bullish sentiment leave them vulnerable to position-squaring.  The EUR has moved too far from its yield disadvantage, and it is not as cheap as some might have you believe.  The Bank of Canada has moved into a watch-and-wait mode. The political shockwave in NZ may be the catalyst for a major realignment in the NZD’s long-run over-valuation.  AUD is suffering from weaker house price growth in Australia and China, the RBA is badly missing its inflation target, and its politics are hardly a shining example for any country.

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD.  In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD, long positions and bullish sentiment leave them vulnerable to position-squaring.  The EUR has moved too far from its yield disadvantage, and it is not as cheap as some might have you believe.  The Bank of Canada has moved into a watch-and-wait mode. The political shockwave in NZ may be the catalyst for a major realignment in the NZD’s long-run over-valuation.  AUD is suffering from weaker house price growth in Australia and China, the RBA is badly missing its inflation target, and its politics are hardly a shining example for any country.

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

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NZD (NZD BGN CURNCY)

USD Short to Long Transition Cycle

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined....

Thomas Schroeder

'Quantitative Squeezing': Prospects for Global Liquidity in 2018

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018: Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is stilla positive...

Michael J. Howell

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations...

Greg Gibbs

RBNZ Governor Spencer Thrown into the Deep End

The RBNZ must revamp the monetary policy outlook this week facing a political minefield. The starting point for inflation is significantly higher...

Greg Gibbs

Major Moves Afoot (EUR, CAD, NZD & AUD)

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD. In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD,...

Greg Gibbs

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