New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZME’s (NZM) ASM update was broadly in line with our expectations.</li><li>After the first four months of FY26, advertising revenue is growing modestly, and 1Q26 profitability has lifted year on year as NZM benefits from the full annualisation of its FY25 cost reset.</li><li>We await clearer evidence on property and ad market conditions before making changes to our forecasts.</li></ul>

NZME’s (NZM) ASM update was broadly in line with our expectations.After the first four months of FY26, advertising revenue is growing modestly, and 1Q26 profitability has lifted year on year as NZM benefits from the full annualisation of its FY25 cost reset.We await clearer evidence on property and ad market conditions before making changes to our forecasts.

NZME Limited 2026 ASM—Steady Tune, Quieter Volume

<ul><li>Advertising revenue is tracking at ~+3% year-on-year across the first four months of 2026, in line with management’s FY25 commentary (released 24 February) that advertising revenues were expected to grow ~3% year-on-year in 1Q.</li><li>1Q26 profitability is up year-on-year, driven by advertising revenue growth and the benefit of 2025 cost savings, continuing the positive momentum seen in 2H25.</li><li>Management flagged that the pace of OneRoof growth this year ‘may be moderated in the near term’, given softer property market conditions, inflationary pressures, and the potential for higher interest rates.</li></ul>

Advertising revenue is tracking at ~+3% year-on-year across the first four months of 2026, in line with management’s FY25 commentary (released 24 February) that advertising revenues were expected to grow ~3% year-on-year in 1Q.1Q26 profitability is up year-on-year, driven by advertising revenue growth and the benefit of 2025 cost savings, continuing the positive momentum seen in 2H25.Management flagged that the pace of OneRoof growth this year ‘may be moderated in the near term’, given softer property market conditions, inflationary pressures, and the potential for higher interest rates.

<ul><li>NZME (NZM) delivered a solid FY25 result, with operating EBITDA lifting +15% year on year to NZ$62.3m—ahead of our NZ$60.7m forecast and above FY26 guidance (NZ$59m–NZ$62m).</li><li>The company is well positioned for FY26 with a strengthened balance sheet (NZ$15.5m net debt at FY25, or ~0.3x EBITDA) and a reset cost base.</li><li>However, our blended spot valuation declines -2% to NZ$1.16, reflecting lower peer comparables.</li></ul>

NZME (NZM) delivered a solid FY25 result, with operating EBITDA lifting +15% year on year to NZ$62.3m—ahead of our NZ$60.7m forecast and above FY26 guidance (NZ$59m–NZ$62m).The company is well positioned for FY26 with a strengthened balance sheet (NZ$15.5m net debt at FY25, or ~0.3x EBITDA) and a reset cost base.However, our blended spot valuation declines -2% to NZ$1.16, reflecting lower peer comparables.

NZME Limited Cost Out Carries the Tune in FY25

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-west-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:804:1" rel="noopener">Seven West Media (SWM AU)</a> IE considers the SXL merger offer to be in the best interests of its shareholders, absent a superior proposal.</li>
<li>The merger requires approval from SWM shareholders, ACMA, and the ACCC. The <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/public-registers/mergers-and-acquisitions-registers/public-informal-merger-reviews-register/southern-cross-media-limited-seven-west-media-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ACCC’s findings</a> will be announced on 18 December. </li>
<li>The scheme vote is low risk as large SWM shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms likely due to speculation of a competing bidder, which is unlikely to occur.  </li>
</ul>


The Seven West Media (SWM AU) IE considers the SXL merger offer to be in the best interests of its shareholders, absent a superior proposal.
The merger requires approval from SWM shareholders, ACMA, and the ACCC. The ACCC’s findings will be announced on 18 December. 
The scheme vote is low risk as large SWM shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms likely due to speculation of a competing bidder, which is unlikely to occur.  


Seven West Media (SWM AU): Scheme Vote on 22 December

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-west-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:804:1" rel="noopener">Seven West Media (SWM AU)</a> will merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> at a ratio of 0.1552 SXL shares per SWM share. </li>
<li>The merger is strategically sensible and is expected to deliver annualised cost synergies of A$25 to A$35 million. The merger requires approval from both the ACMA and the ACCC.</li>
<li>While the offer is light compared to historical exchange ratios and peer multiples, large SWM shareholders are supportive. The scheme vote risk is low. </li>
</ul>



Seven West Media (SWM AU) will merge with Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) at a ratio of 0.1552 SXL shares per SWM share. 
The merger is strategically sensible and is expected to deliver annualised cost synergies of A$25 to A$35 million. The merger requires approval from both the ACMA and the ACCC.
While the offer is light compared to historical exchange ratios and peer multiples, large SWM shareholders are supportive. The scheme vote risk is low. 


Seven West Media (SWM AU): Merger with Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)

New Zealand

NZME Limited provides printing and publication services. The Company offers services of newspapers and magazines, as well as commercial printing and specialist publications.

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NZME Limited (NZM NZ)

NZME Limited 2026 ASM—Steady Tune, Quieter Volume

NZME’s (NZM) ASM update was broadly in line with our expectations. After the first four months of FY26, advertising revenue is growing modestly,...

Forsyth Barr

NZME (NZM) - ASM Trading Update

Advertising revenue is tracking at ~+3% year-on-year across the first four months of 2026, in line with management’s FY25 commentary (released 24...

Forsyth Barr

NZME Limited Cost Out Carries the Tune in FY25

NZME (NZM) delivered a solid FY25 result, with operating EBITDA lifting +15% year on year to NZ$62.3m—ahead of our NZ$60.7m forecast and above FY26...

Forsyth Barr

Seven West Media (SWM AU): Scheme Vote on 22 December

The scheme vote is low risk as large SWM shareholders are supportive. Shares are trading through terms likely due to speculation of a competing...

Arun George

Seven West Media (SWM AU): Merger with Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)

While the offer is light compared to historical exchange ratios and peer multiples, large SWM shareholders are supportive. The scheme vote risk is...

Arun George

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