New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZX reported a slightly soft 1Q26 trading update at its ASM, largely a function of subdued market activity and returns year to date.</li><li>NZX has left its FY26 guidance unchanged, but it came with a cautious note that if there is no improvement, the lower end of its range is likely.</li><li>NZX trades on ~19x 12-month forward PE, a modest premium to its peer weighted average.</li></ul>

NZX reported a slightly soft 1Q26 trading update at its ASM, largely a function of subdued market activity and returns year to date.NZX has left its FY26 guidance unchanged, but it came with a cautious note that if there is no improvement, the lower end of its range is likely.NZX trades on ~19x 12-month forward PE, a modest premium to its peer weighted average.

<ul><li>NZX reported a solid FY25 result, with operating EBITDA broadly in line with our expectations.</li><li>Positively, NZX indicated the pipeline for new listings and capital raises has improved, and its NZX20 derivatives market is set to launch in 2Q26.</li><li>ETF inflows have been higher than expected, but we remain cautious about extrapolating recent trends as the industry becomes more competitive.</li></ul>

NZX reported a solid FY25 result, with operating EBITDA broadly in line with our expectations.Positively, NZX indicated the pipeline for new listings and capital raises has improved, and its NZX20 derivatives market is set to launch in 2Q26.ETF inflows have been higher than expected, but we remain cautious about extrapolating recent trends as the industry becomes more competitive.

NZX FY25 Result—FUM Growth, Dividend Growth

<ul><li>NZX will report its FY25 result on Thursday 26 February.</li><li>We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result (midpoint of its range), due to strong market returns in Funds Management.</li><li>Our key focus areas at the result will be: (1) Funds Management cost growth; we expect solid margin improvement in FY25 but expect cost growth to have increased through the year; (2) Markets EBITDA; we expect it down -8% year-on-year in 2H25, versus down -5% in 1H25; (3) any additional Wealth Tech client wins beyond its already announced Craigs deal; and (4) FY26 guidance; we estimate operating EBITDA of NZ$57.5m, broadly in-line with consensus, and dividend growth for the first time since FY17.</li></ul>

NZX will report its FY25 result on Thursday 26 February.We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result (midpoint of its range), due to strong market returns in Funds Management.Our key focus areas at the result will be: (1) Funds Management cost growth; we expect solid margin improvement in FY25 but expect cost growth to have increased through the year; (2) Markets EBITDA; we expect it down -8% year-on-year in 2H25, versus down -5% in 1H25; (3) any additional Wealth Tech client wins beyond its already announced Craigs deal; and (4) FY26 guidance; we estimate operating EBITDA of NZ$57.5m, broadly in-line with consensus, and dividend growth for the first time since FY17.

<ul><li>NZX has secured a large contract for its Wealth Tech business with Craigs Investment Partners.</li><li>We view this win as further de-risking our medium-term revenue growth forecasts rather than providing meaningful upside.</li><li>For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.</li></ul>

NZX has secured a large contract for its Wealth Tech business with Craigs Investment Partners.We view this win as further de-risking our medium-term revenue growth forecasts rather than providing meaningful upside.For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.

<ul><li>While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns, particularly in NZD terms.</li><li>Outside of Funds Management, the story is not as positive.</li><li>Overall, we now expect FY25 EBITDA to be towards the top end of its guidance range, considering NZX’s historic conservatism.</li></ul>

While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns, particularly in NZD terms.Outside of Funds Management, the story is not as positive.Overall, we now expect FY25 EBITDA to be towards the top end of its guidance range, considering NZX’s historic conservatism.

New Zealand

NZX Ltd. operates the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the country's primary national stock exchange.  NZX provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities and operates markets for equities, corporate and government bonds, fixed income securities and alternative equity investments.

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NZX (NZX NZ)

NZX 1Q26—Volatility But No Volume

NZX reported a slightly soft 1Q26 trading update at its ASM, largely a function of subdued market activity and returns year to date. NZX has left...

Forsyth Barr

NZX FY25 Result—FUM Growth, Dividend Growth

Positively, NZX indicated the pipeline for new listings and capital raises has improved, and its NZX20 derivatives market is set to launch in 2Q26.

Forsyth Barr

NZX FY25 Preview—FUM Up, Volumes Down

We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result

Forsyth Barr

NZX Risk Off Day For Wealth Tech

For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.

Forsyth Barr

NZX Keeping Up With the Index

While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns,...

Forsyth Barr

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