New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZX will report its FY25 result on Thursday 26 February.</li><li>We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result (midpoint of its range), due to strong market returns in Funds Management.</li><li>Our key focus areas at the result will be: (1) Funds Management cost growth; we expect solid margin improvement in FY25 but expect cost growth to have increased through the year; (2) Markets EBITDA; we expect it down -8% year-on-year in 2H25, versus down -5% in 1H25; (3) any additional Wealth Tech client wins beyond its already announced Craigs deal; and (4) FY26 guidance; we estimate operating EBITDA of NZ$57.5m, broadly in-line with consensus, and dividend growth for the first time since FY17.</li></ul>

NZX will report its FY25 result on Thursday 26 February.We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result (midpoint of its range), due to strong market returns in Funds Management.Our key focus areas at the result will be: (1) Funds Management cost growth; we expect solid margin improvement in FY25 but expect cost growth to have increased through the year; (2) Markets EBITDA; we expect it down -8% year-on-year in 2H25, versus down -5% in 1H25; (3) any additional Wealth Tech client wins beyond its already announced Craigs deal; and (4) FY26 guidance; we estimate operating EBITDA of NZ$57.5m, broadly in-line with consensus, and dividend growth for the first time since FY17.

<ul><li>NZX has secured a large contract for its Wealth Tech business with Craigs Investment Partners.</li><li>We view this win as further de-risking our medium-term revenue growth forecasts rather than providing meaningful upside.</li><li>For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.</li></ul>

NZX has secured a large contract for its Wealth Tech business with Craigs Investment Partners.We view this win as further de-risking our medium-term revenue growth forecasts rather than providing meaningful upside.For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.

<ul><li>While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns, particularly in NZD terms.</li><li>Outside of Funds Management, the story is not as positive.</li><li>Overall, we now expect FY25 EBITDA to be towards the top end of its guidance range, considering NZX’s historic conservatism.</li></ul>

While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns, particularly in NZD terms.Outside of Funds Management, the story is not as positive.Overall, we now expect FY25 EBITDA to be towards the top end of its guidance range, considering NZX’s historic conservatism.

<ul><li>Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August.</li><li>We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates.</li><li>We expect the focus to be on: (1) underlying earnings and margin run-rates—we estimate 2H26 materials and distribution EBIT up <em>c.</em>+25% on the prior year; (2) balance sheet de-leveraging given recent asset sales and potential divestment of the residential division; and (3) progress on improving returns on capital.</li></ul>

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August.We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates.We expect the focus to be on: (1) underlying earnings and margin run-rates—we estimate 2H26 materials and distribution EBIT up c.+25% on the prior year; (2) balance sheet de-leveraging given recent asset sales and potential divestment of the residential division; and (3) progress on improving returns on capital.

Fletcher Building FY26 Preview—Last Months News

<ul><li>NZX delivered a broadly in-line 1H25 and reiterated FY25 guidance.</li><li>The negative was Wealth Tech (WT): while NZX continued to provide positive commentary on prospective client conversations, it has not contracted any material clients in the last 12 months, and free cash flow was softer than expectations (albeit driven by internal onboarding).</li><li>The positive was Funds Management cost control.</li></ul>

NZX delivered a broadly in-line 1H25 and reiterated FY25 guidance.The negative was Wealth Tech (WT): while NZX continued to provide positive commentary on prospective client conversations, it has not contracted any material clients in the last 12 months, and free cash flow was softer than expectations (albeit driven by internal onboarding).The positive was Funds Management cost control.

New Zealand

NZX Ltd. operates the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the country's primary national stock exchange.  NZX provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities and operates markets for equities, corporate and government bonds, fixed income securities and alternative equity investments.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NZX (NZX NZ)

NZX FY25 Preview—FUM Up, Volumes Down

We expect a result in the upper half of its guidance range (NZ$49m—NZ$54m), slightly ahead of NZX’s expectations from its 1H25 result

Forsyth Barr

NZX Risk Off Day For Wealth Tech

For NZX's funds-management business, competition is increasing, with Sharesies set to launch funds with lower fees in competition with NZX's ETFs.

Forsyth Barr

NZX Keeping Up With the Index

While NZX’s 3Q25 revenue was broadly in line with expectations, the exit run-rate in Funds Management is solid given buoyant global market returns,...

Forsyth Barr

Fletcher Building FY26 Preview—Last Months News

Fletcher Building (FBU) will report its FY26 result on 20 August. We don’t expect any surprises given the recent guidance and trading updates. We...

Forsyth Barr

NZX FY25 Result—Matching Flat

The negative was Wealth Tech (WT): while NZX continued to provide positive commentary on prospective client conversations, it has not contracted...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)