New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NZX should report a solid 1H25 result on Friday, 22 August 2025.</li><li>We expect low double-digit NPAT growth as it benefits from robust global market returns in its funds management segment, an improvement in traded volumes, and reduced losses in wealth tech.</li><li>With 1Q25 revenue (+7% year-on-year) and EBITDA (+9%) as well as 2Q25 operating stats already known, we expect the surprise factor to be low.</li></ul>

NZX should report a solid 1H25 result on Friday, 22 August 2025.We expect low double-digit NPAT growth as it benefits from robust global market returns in its funds management segment, an improvement in traded volumes, and reduced losses in wealth tech.With 1Q25 revenue (+7% year-on-year) and EBITDA (+9%) as well as 2Q25 operating stats already known, we expect the surprise factor to be low.

<ul><li>We downgrade NZX to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>Over the last five years, NZX's EBITDA mix has shifted from ~90% markets to ~40% funds management.</li><li>With this report we transfer coverage of NZX to Ben Crozier from Andrew Harvey-Green.</li></ul>

We downgrade NZX to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL.Over the last five years, NZX's EBITDA mix has shifted from ~90% markets to ~40% funds management.With this report we transfer coverage of NZX to Ben Crozier from Andrew Harvey-Green.

<ul><li>NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower asset prices and FUM.</li><li>The 1Q25 update included some positives such as better-than-expected funds management fee revenue, successful onboarding of new funds under administration, and value traded tracking above initial expectations.</li><li>The outlook for FY25 is slightly softer due to reduced asset prices affecting FUM-based revenue and listing fees, with profitability largely dependent on asset price paths.</li></ul>

NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower asset prices and FUM.The 1Q25 update included some positives such as better-than-expected funds management fee revenue, successful onboarding of new funds under administration, and value traded tracking above initial expectations.The outlook for FY25 is slightly softer due to reduced asset prices affecting FUM-based revenue and listing fees, with profitability largely dependent on asset price paths.

NZX 1Q25 Update—Holding Pattern at the Bourse

<ul><li>NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.</li><li>Management has consistently met or exceeded the midpoint of its initial guidance over the past six years, despite market cycles, giving us confidence in its first-time FY25 guidance.</li><li>The outlook aligns with our estimates, implying +6% growth on FY24, or ~+9% when excluding the net impact of the lost Fonterra contract.</li></ul>

NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.Management has consistently met or exceeded the midpoint of its initial guidance over the past six years, despite market cycles, giving us confidence in its first-time FY25 guidance.The outlook aligns with our estimates, implying +6% growth on FY24, or ~+9% when excluding the net impact of the lost Fonterra contract.

<ul><li>NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.</li><li>In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.</li><li>We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. </li></ul>

NZX's investor day provided assurance it is on the right track, with execution of its strategy the key near-term focus.In addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing roadblocks.We have lifted our target price +10cps (+6%) to NZ$1.70 as we now have enough confidence to ascribe some value to the Wealth Technologies business, albeit modest, with upside dependent on execution, particularly on cost. 

New Zealand

NZX Ltd. operates the New Zealand Stock Exchange, the country's primary national stock exchange.  NZX provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities and operates markets for equities, corporate and government bonds, fixed income securities and alternative equity investments.

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NZX (NZX NZ)

NZX 1H25 Preview—Low Tracking Error

With 1Q25 revenue (+7% year-on-year) and EBITDA (+9%) as well as 2Q25 operating stats already known, we expect the surprise factor to be low.

Forsyth Barr

NZX Not The Lowest Offer, UNDERPERFORM

We downgrade NZX to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL. Over the last five years, NZX's EBITDA mix has shifted from ~90% markets to ~40% funds management.

Forsyth Barr

NZX 1Q25 Update—Holding Pattern at the Bourse

NZX reported a solid 1Q25 update, with revenue and earnings broadly in line with expectations, but with a reduction in FY25 estimate due to lower...

Forsyth Barr

NZX - FY24 Result—Trading Well

NZX delivered a strong FY24 result, with growth across all three divisions, benefiting from strong market returns and improving activity.

Forsyth Barr

Nzx - Par for the Course at the Bourse

n addition, tailwinds for the Market business are appearing as expected — partly cyclical, and partly positive initiatives to remove listing...

Forsyth Barr

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