IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.</li>
<li>Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.</li>
<li>I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread widened after the initial tightening due to the precondition satisfaction.
Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain it.
I think these concerns are unwarranted, and the vote should pass. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/55.0%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.</li>
<li>For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.</li>
<li>Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP has started. Kelun Pharma, Fosun Pharma and CSPC are expected to be the big pharmaceutical companies that get hit most in this VBP.
For biopharmaceutical companies, rather than R&amp;D technology, revenue scale is the most important moat. Accordingly, we recommend to invest medium and large biotech that are currently scaling up.
Xingqi’s share price decline is related to the potential lower-than-expected performance in 24Q3. Sales expansion of 0.01% atropine eye drops takes time considering the difficulty of new drug hospital admission.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

China

Ocumension Therapeutics operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on identifying, developing, and commercializing ophthalmic therapies. Ocumension Therapeutics serves customers in the United States and China.

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Ocumension Therapeutics (1477 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Henlius (2696 HK): Anxiety Creeping Back Ahead of the 22 January Vote

Several readers have enquired about my thoughts on the widening spread. Our conversations have raised several potential concerns that could explain...

Arun George

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.27)-10th National VBP, Revenue Scale Is the Only Moat, Xingqi’s Outlook

​10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

10th national VBP will impact big pharma like Kelun/Fosun/CSPC.Revenue scale is the only moat for pharma company.Xingqi's 24Q3 results may be...