Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here -- barring improvements. At the same time we are not seeing widespread breakdowns and the major averages are still consolidating within a 1-month horizontal range. As long as this consolidation continues, a neutral outlook is appropriate. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within health care staffing, silver, and platinum miners, and Electric and Gas utilities.

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here -- barring improvements. At the same time we are not seeing widespread breakdowns and the major averages are still consolidating within a 1-month horizontal range. As long as this consolidation continues, a neutral outlook is appropriate. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within health care staffing, silver, and platinum miners, and Electric and Gas utilities.

S&P 500 Consolidating Despite Negative Signals

The S&amp;P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&amp;P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

The S&amp;P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&amp;P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown.  We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

United States

OGE Energy Corp., through its principal subsidiary Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to wholesale and retail customers in communities in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The Company, through Enogex Inc., operates natural gas transmission and gathering pipelines, has interests in gas processing plants, and markets electricity.

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Oge Energy Corp (OGE US)

S&P 500 Consolidating Despite Negative Signals

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here --...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support

The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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