External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key speaker of the session was Mr. Anas Farook, CFO of OGDC.</li><li>Regarding the ongoing offshore bidding round, management stated that discussions are underway with several US based petroleum and services companies. The company has also signed an MOU with Turkish Petroleum for offshore blocks.</li><li>The company expects to receive the second interest instalment of Rs7.7bn against TFCs issued by the government within the next 7 days. This will bring the outstanding interest amount down to Rs76.6bn, payable over the next 10 months.</li></ul>

Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key speaker of the session was Mr. Anas Farook, CFO of OGDC.Regarding the ongoing offshore bidding round, management stated that discussions are underway with several US based petroleum and services companies. The company has also signed an MOU with Turkish Petroleum for offshore blocks.The company expects to receive the second interest instalment of Rs7.7bn against TFCs issued by the government within the next 7 days. This will bring the outstanding interest amount down to Rs76.6bn, payable over the next 10 months.

Pakistan Day Conference 2025 - OGDC To Receive Rs80bn From Uch Power Under Power Sector Circular Debt Resolution

<ul><li>Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.</li><li>Production from Razgir has commenced, with current output at 20-25mmcfd. Following planned plant enhancements, production capacity is expected to be increased to 30mmcfd. These enhancement works are targeted for completion by end of 2025.</li><li>Management noted that the third-party allocation of Razgir gas allows the company to realize a 16% premium over PP2012 pricing for the field.</li></ul>

Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future outlook.Production from Razgir has commenced, with current output at 20-25mmcfd. Following planned plant enhancements, production capacity is expected to be increased to 30mmcfd. These enhancement works are targeted for completion by end of 2025.Management noted that the third-party allocation of Razgir gas allows the company to realize a 16% premium over PP2012 pricing for the field.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Oilfields (POL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay contracts for 9 cargoes per month to address the current gas surplus issues in the country.</li><li>Previously, OGRA in its reports had projected Pakistan gas demand (including RLNG) to surpass 6000mmcfd by 2026. However, due to various foreseeable and inevitable factors, demand/supply have contracted substantially to less than 4,000mmcfd.</li><li>We believe, if 2 cargoes of Qatar are sold in the international market or deferred beyond 2031, this will increase domestic E&Ps volumes to around 3000 mmcfd, suggesting around 70% of the volumes will be recovered.</li></ul>

According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay contracts for 9 cargoes per month to address the current gas surplus issues in the country.Previously, OGRA in its reports had projected Pakistan gas demand (including RLNG) to surpass 6000mmcfd by 2026. However, due to various foreseeable and inevitable factors, demand/supply have contracted substantially to less than 4,000mmcfd.We believe, if 2 cargoes of Qatar are sold in the international market or deferred beyond 2031, this will increase domestic E&Ps volumes to around 3000 mmcfd, suggesting around 70% of the volumes will be recovered.

(Corrected) Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration: Qatar Cargo Diversion to Help Lift Volumes

<ul><li>According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay contracts for 9 cargoes per month to address the current gas surplus issues in the country.</li><li>Currently Pakistan’s indigenous gas supply stands at 2,770 mmcfd, based on the last six months avg, while RLNG imports average 936 mmcfd, taking the total supply to an average of 3,707 mmcfd.</li><li>We believe, if 2 cargoes of Qatar are sold in the international market or deferred beyond 2031, this will increase domestic E&amp;Ps volumes to around 3000 mmcfd, suggesting around 70% of the volumes will be recovered.</li></ul>

According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay contracts for 9 cargoes per month to address the current gas surplus issues in the country.Currently Pakistan’s indigenous gas supply stands at 2,770 mmcfd, based on the last six months avg, while RLNG imports average 936 mmcfd, taking the total supply to an average of 3,707 mmcfd.We believe, if 2 cargoes of Qatar are sold in the international market or deferred beyond 2031, this will increase domestic E&amp;Ps volumes to around 3000 mmcfd, suggesting around 70% of the volumes will be recovered.

Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration: Qatar Cargo Diversion To Help Lift Volumes

<ul><li>We expect Topline E&P universe to post an 8% YoY decline in earnings in 1QFY26, primarily due to a decline in hydrocarbon production and oil prices.</li><li>Oil production during the quarter averaged 62.2k bpd, down 5% YoY, while gas production fell 7% to around 2,807 mmcfd.</li><li>The expected fall in earnings is primarily attributable to a higher Effective Tax Rate (ETR), which is expected to normalize to around 35% in 1QFY26 vs. 26% in the previous quarter.</li></ul>

We expect Topline E&P universe to post an 8% YoY decline in earnings in 1QFY26, primarily due to a decline in hydrocarbon production and oil prices.Oil production during the quarter averaged 62.2k bpd, down 5% YoY, while gas production fell 7% to around 2,807 mmcfd.The expected fall in earnings is primarily attributable to a higher Effective Tax Rate (ETR), which is expected to normalize to around 35% in 1QFY26 vs. 26% in the previous quarter.

Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration - E&Ps Profitability Likely To Decline By 8% YoY In 1QFY26; Market Weight Maintained

Pakistan

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

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Oil & Gas Development (OGDC PA)

Pakistan Day Conference 2025 - OGDC To Receive Rs80bn From Uch Power Under Power Sector Circular Debt Resolution

Topline Securities organized the Pakistan Day Conference 2025 for foreign investors. The conference began with a session on OGDC, where the key...

Topline Securities

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Oilfields (POL): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Pakistan Oilfields (POL) conducted its Corporate Briefing Session (CBS) today, where the management discussed financial results and future...

Topline Securities

(Corrected) Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration: Qatar Cargo Diversion to Help Lift Volumes

According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration: Qatar Cargo Diversion To Help Lift Volumes

According to news reports, Pakistan is considering deferring 2-3 RLNG cargoes per month (29 in a year) from Qatar under its existing take-or-pay...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Oil & Gas Exploration - E&Ps Profitability Likely To Decline By 8% YoY In 1QFY26; Market Weight Maintained

We expect Topline E&P universe to post an 8% YoY decline in earnings in 1QFY26, primarily due to a decline in hydrocarbon production and oil...

Topline Securities

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