Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The US-Iran conflict and naval deployments recently triggered a <strong>16% crude surge</strong>, shattering the muted Q3 growth expectations.</li>
<li>Rising oil prices now generate massive revenue windfalls for upstream extractors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20751:1" rel="noopener">Oil India Ltd (OINL IN)</a> , while simultaneously squeezing marketing margins for major fuel retailers.</li>
<li>Pivot toward upstream giants and complex refiners to<strong> capture geopolitical alpha</strong>, as the "Iran Premium" continues to reshape Indian energy market valuations.</li>
</ul>


The US-Iran conflict and naval deployments recently triggered a 16% crude surge, shattering the muted Q3 growth expectations.
Rising oil prices now generate massive revenue windfalls for upstream extractors like Oil India Ltd (OINL IN) , while simultaneously squeezing marketing margins for major fuel retailers.
Pivot toward upstream giants and complex refiners to capture geopolitical alpha, as the "Iran Premium" continues to reshape Indian energy market valuations.


US-Iran Conflict: An Opportunity or Threat for Indian Oil Companies?

<ul>
<li>Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  </li>
<li>While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  </li>
<li>The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.</li>
</ul>


Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  
While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  
The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.


Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  </li>
<li>This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.</li>
<li>Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices have dropped sharply, with WTI and Brent falling 3-4% due to OPEC+'s decision to increase oil output to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding .  
This decline in oil prices could benefit India’s Oil Marketing Companies, paint, tyre, and aviation sectors, while negatively impacting upstream oil explorers and refineries.
Despite OPEC+'s move to ramp up production, global demand remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and oil prices are forecasted to stay low, affecting various sectors.


OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.</li>
<li>Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.</li>
<li>While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.</li>
</ul>


U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.


The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions

India

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is India's largest crude oil and natural gas company, engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. It supplies crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products to major Indian oil and gas refining and marketing companies. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was founded on August 14, 1956.

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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

US-Iran Conflict: An Opportunity or Threat for Indian Oil Companies?

US-Iran conflict sparks 16% crude surge, benefiting upstream extractors like Oil India Ltd but squeezing fuel retailers' margins. Geopolitical...

Nimish Maheshwari

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions

U.S. oil producers face profitability challenges with prices near USD 60/b, while trade uncertainty raises equipment costs. Saudi Arabia struggles...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

US-Iran Conflict: An Opportunity or Threat for Indian Oil Companies?

​US-Iran conflict sparks 16% crude surge, benefiting upstream extractors like Oil India Ltd but squeezing fuel retailers' margins. Geopolitical...

Nimish Maheshwari

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

​Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

OPEC+ Pushes for Market Share, How India Can Benefit?

​OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions

​U.S. oil producers face profitability challenges with prices near USD 60/b, while trade uncertainty raises equipment costs. Saudi Arabia struggles...

Mint Finance

US-Iran conflict sparks 16% crude surge, benefiting upstream extractors like Oil India Ltd but squeezing fuel retailers' margins. Geopolitical...

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

OPEC+ decision to increase oil output leads to sharp drop in crude oil prices, benefiting some sectors in India but impacting others negatively,...

U.S. oil producers face profitability challenges with prices near USD 60/b, while trade uncertainty raises equipment costs. Saudi Arabia struggles...