Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

Walmart’s 18-year attempt to build a business in Japan ended last month when the US retailer announced it would sell 85% of its stake in Seiyu to KKR and Rakuten.Seiyu has been transformed under Walmart’s leadership although it is much smaller than when Walmart arrived.Now, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> taking over, the hope is Seiyu could re-emerge as a leader in food e-commerce under Rakuten.The Seiyu chain could transform Rakuten’s logistics capability, allowing it to offer a comprehensive click &amp; collect service as well as use redundant store space for dark store fulfilment.What the new partners cannot afford to do is dither. Japan may well have room for more than one major online food retailer but just a couple of leaders will command the lion’s share.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>’s partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>’s Lohaco, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a>, and, at some point, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ocado-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22067:1" rel="noopener">Ocado Group PLC (OCDO LN)</a> are the ones to beat.Already the deal is causing a significant upset in supermarket and GMS retailing.

Walmart’s 18-year attempt to build a business in Japan ended last month when the US retailer announced it would sell 85% of its stake in Seiyu to KKR and Rakuten.Seiyu has been transformed under Walmart’s leadership although it is much smaller than when Walmart arrived.Now, with KKR &amp; Co Inc (KKR US) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) taking over, the hope is Seiyu could re-emerge as a leader in food e-commerce under Rakuten.The Seiyu chain could transform Rakuten’s logistics capability, allowing it to offer a comprehensive click &amp; collect service as well as use redundant store space for dark store fulfilment.What the new partners cannot afford to do is dither. Japan may well have room for more than one major online food retailer but just a couple of leaders will command the lion’s share.  Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)’s partnership with Life Corp (8194 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP)’s Lohaco, Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP), and, at some point, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)/Ocado Group PLC (OCDO LN) are the ones to beat.Already the deal is causing a significant upset in supermarket and GMS retailing.

KKR & Rakuten Ignite Online Food Battle with Seiyu Purchase

Equity Bottom-Up

Seven &amp; I had a dismal first half at almost all of its chains. On the plus side, e-commerce sales improved but, even here, results could have been better when compared to what some rivals have achieved online. At least Nissen, the acquired catalogue company, finally returned to profit.

Seven &amp; I had a dismal first half at almost all of its chains. On the plus side, e-commerce sales improved but, even here, results could have been better when compared to what some rivals have achieved online. At least Nissen, the acquired catalogue company, finally returned to profit.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> has managed to grow rapidly during the pandemic and make a much improved profit at the same time. The business remains small compared to supermarkets, but has a unique position as the only pureplay retailer for fresh foods. This has attracted new partners, the latest of which are Ootoya and Ebay's Qoo10.
Given current momentum to buy food online, even if competitors are also expanding, Oisix has now updated its forecasts, expecting sales to hit ¥90 billion, a 15.4% increase with operating profit coming in at ¥5 billion.

Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) has managed to grow rapidly during the pandemic and make a much improved profit at the same time. The business remains small compared to supermarkets, but has a unique position as the only pureplay retailer for fresh foods. This has attracted new partners, the latest of which are Ootoya and Ebay's Qoo10.
Given current momentum to buy food online, even if competitors are also expanding, Oisix has now updated its forecasts, expecting sales to hit ¥90 billion, a 15.4% increase with operating profit coming in at ¥5 billion.

Oisix Thrives in Crisis, Ties with Ootoya

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Yesterday after the close, as the Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ootoya-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7329:1" rel="noopener">OOTOYA Holdings (2705 JP)</a> (<a href="https://www.ootoya.jp/common/pdf/corporate_profile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corporate profile in English</a>) was drawing to a close (and as it had already gone ex-), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colowide-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13967:1" rel="noopener">Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP)</a> announced amendments to terms which both extended the Tender Offer from its close yesterday to 8 September, and more importantly, lowered the minimum number of shares required for success to 1.51mm shares from 1.872mm shares prior. The extension itself would have been an indication that they weren't going to get the shares they wanted at first crack. The fact that the minimum has been lowered is a reason to understand that they think it will be difficult to get there in any case. The change in the minimum a reduction of 19% of that number and sets their minimum target shareholding to exactly 40.00% rather than 45.00%. This makes it slightly more difficult to "control" Ootoya if they get to the minimum but no more, but if necessary to get anywhere near a chunky non-majority piece, the fact that they felt they needed to lower it tells you about the loyalty of existing shareholders. Ootoya shares responded by climbing 9.4% today to ¥2,954 apiece. As I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/colowide-partial-tender-for-ootoya-is-a-sell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on 12 July when the shares traded ¥3,050-3,115, those who had shares should sell. Those who could borrow should short. It wasn't worth waiting for the Tender Offer. It is not clear why that advice does not still stand, but below I go through the numbers.

Yesterday after the close, as the Tender Offer for OOTOYA Holdings (2705 JP) (corporate profile in English) was drawing to a close (and as it had already gone ex-), Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP) announced amendments to terms which both extended the Tender Offer from its close yesterday to 8 September, and more importantly, lowered the minimum number of shares required for success to 1.51mm shares from 1.872mm shares prior. The extension itself would have been an indication that they weren't going to get the shares they wanted at first crack. The fact that the minimum has been lowered is a reason to understand that they think it will be difficult to get there in any case. The change in the minimum a reduction of 19% of that number and sets their minimum target shareholding to exactly 40.00% rather than 45.00%. This makes it slightly more difficult to "control" Ootoya if they get to the minimum but no more, but if necessary to get anywhere near a chunky non-majority piece, the fact that they felt they needed to lower it tells you about the loyalty of existing shareholders. Ootoya shares responded by climbing 9.4% today to ¥2,954 apiece. As I said on 12 July when the shares traded ¥3,050-3,115, those who had shares should sell. Those who could borrow should short. It wasn't worth waiting for the Tender Offer. It is not clear why that advice does not still stand, but below I go through the numbers.

Ootoya Tender Offer - Still Tough, Still a Sell

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quantitative Analysis

About 18 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> set up an interesting framework to look at TOPIX Inclusions over time, showing how different size categories performed in the run-up to inclusion then after inclusion. That was in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/historical-topix-inclusions-how-do-they-do-around-inclusion-date" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26751" rel="noopener">Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  How Do They Do Around Inclusion Date?</a> I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/historical-topix-inclusions-what-flavor-performs-best" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39523" rel="noopener">Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best?</a> last month to enhance and update the analysis to include combination inclusion event size and impact size as parameters by which to understand reward: risk characteristics. This month I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-recent-tachiaigai-bunbai-round-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40509" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up</a> which discussesThere are currently 10 live pre-events, 5 live inclusion events, and a half dozen just-post-inclusion names from May 2020.This insight provides a recap of what has happened this month in each category, and the charts can show you where each category of live event situates itself on its historical pattern.The three TOPIX inclusions for May in the non-AVOID category outperformed TOPIX by an average of just over 50% from announcement to inclusion. We wrote on all three, being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-retail-partners-8167-jp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">especially bullish on the one which went up 80%</a>. This category of event trade can offer significantly interesting trading opportunities. We encourage investors to track them.

About 18 months ago, Travis Lundy set up an interesting framework to look at TOPIX Inclusions over time, showing how different size categories performed in the run-up to inclusion then after inclusion. That was in Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  How Do They Do Around Inclusion Date? I published Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best? last month to enhance and update the analysis to include combination inclusion event size and impact size as parameters by which to understand reward: risk characteristics. This month I published TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up which discussesThere are currently 10 live pre-events, 5 live inclusion events, and a half dozen just-post-inclusion names from May 2020.This insight provides a recap of what has happened this month in each category, and the charts can show you where each category of live event situates itself on its historical pattern.The three TOPIX inclusions for May in the non-AVOID category outperformed TOPIX by an average of just over 50% from announcement to inclusion. We wrote on all three, being especially bullish on the one which went up 80%. This category of event trade can offer significantly interesting trading opportunities. We encourage investors to track them.

Japan

Oisix ra daichi Inc. sells various food products online. Among other products, the company sells vegetables, fruits, fish, meat, milk, and ready-made food.

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Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)

KKR & Rakuten Ignite Online Food Battle with Seiyu Purchase

E-commerce has less than 3% share of Japanese food retailing. This will change dramatically in the next 3 years, led by Amazon but also by Rakuten...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Still Floundering

Seven & I has tried and failed to gain a foothold in digital markets but looks to be retreating from online food just at a time when competitors...

Michael Causton

Oisix Thrives in Crisis, Ties with Ootoya

Oisix Ra Daichi is a quality brand in a nascent market: online food retailing where e-commerce has less than 3% share. It is a huge prize and...

Michael Causton

Ootoya Tender Offer - Still Tough, Still a Sell

Yesterday after the close, as the Tender Offer for OOTOYA Holdings (2705 JP) (corporate profile in English) was drawing to a close (and as it had...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: June 2020

About 18 months ago, Travis Lundy set up an interesting framework to look at TOPIX Inclusions over time, showing how different size categories...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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