Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okuma-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6688:1" rel="noopener">Okuma Corp (6103 JP)</a> today announced a secondary offering of 5.0mm shares (including greenshoe) from a relatively large number of financial crossholders. </li>
<li>That takes out about a third of them and not quite a quarter of the crossholders. There's more to go. And the register remains "blocked". </li>
<li>It looks headed to retail but this stock is very low volatility and is likely to remain that way. A large buyback to start in January offsets the overhang here.</li>
</ul>



Okuma Corp (6103 JP) today announced a secondary offering of 5.0mm shares (including greenshoe) from a relatively large number of financial crossholders. 
That takes out about a third of them and not quite a quarter of the crossholders. There's more to go. And the register remains "blocked". 
It looks headed to retail but this stock is very low volatility and is likely to remain that way. A large buyback to start in January offsets the overhang here.


[Japan Offering] Significant Financial Crossholder Selldown in Okuma (6103)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Hong Jie Seow

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG and others are looking to sell around US$104m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/okuma-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6688:1" rel="noopener">Okuma Corp (6103 JP)</a> stock.</li>
<li>This is a slightly large deal to digest, representing 13.2 days of three month ADV and 6.4% of outstanding stock.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG and others are looking to sell around US$104m of Okuma Corp (6103 JP) stock.
This is a slightly large deal to digest, representing 13.2 days of three month ADV and 6.4% of outstanding stock.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Okuma Corp Placement: Strong Financial Performance in Recent Period

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US equities were mixed as JPMorgan’s decline weighed on the Dow, small caps hit new highs on expected Fed easing, ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision.</li>
<li>Markets focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with futures pricing an 87% probability of another quarter-point cut</li>
<li>Okuma faces near-term pressure from a sizable share sale, but buybacks, low valuations and its AI-enabled Smart Factory platform support the longer-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


US equities were mixed as JPMorgan’s decline weighed on the Dow, small caps hit new highs on expected Fed easing, ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision.
Markets focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with futures pricing an 87% probability of another quarter-point cut
Okuma faces near-term pressure from a sizable share sale, but buybacks, low valuations and its AI-enabled Smart Factory platform support the longer-term outlook.


Ohayo Japan | US Markets Steady as Fed Decision Takes Center Stage

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>I overlooked one detail in the Sep26 rebal announcement which, when discovered, changed my outlook on the March 2027 Nikkei 225 rebalance. </li>
<li>Unfortunately, the implied changes cannot be confirmed yet. It may be possible to get some greater confirmation in October. </li>
<li>But the implied changes signal a different pattern of ADDs and DELETEs. And a few stocks stand out. </li>
</ul>


I overlooked one detail in the Sep26 rebal announcement which, when discovered, changed my outlook on the March 2027 Nikkei 225 rebalance. 
Unfortunately, the implied changes cannot be confirmed yet. It may be possible to get some greater confirmation in October. 
But the implied changes signal a different pattern of ADDs and DELETEs. And a few stocks stand out. 


[Quiddity Index] CORRECTION: Advance Look at Mar27 Nikkei 225 Rebal; Info & Comms Rules The Roost

<ul>
<li>The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep26-rebal-results-3-adds-3-dels-no-new-rules-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:266702" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact</a>. </li>
<li>Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. </li>
<li>With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. </li>
</ul>


The September 2026 Nikkei 225 Review was announced today. Results are discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Results: 3 ADDs, 3 DELs, No New Rules Impact. 
Things went roughly as predicted for the selection of data they chose (there was a question about industry categorisation). Some people questioned discretionary ordering. That's settled. 
With 92% of the Mar27 rebal data period behind us, we take a brief look at what the March 2027 rebal. It's kind of confusing. The third delete is tough. 


[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

Japan

OKUMA Corporation manufactures machine tools and other industrial machinery. The Company produces computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools including lathes, machining centers (MCs), grinders, and drilling machines.

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Okuma Corp (6103 JP)

[Japan Offering] Significant Financial Crossholder Selldown in Okuma (6103)

The Okuma secondary offering is large, but there is a buyback which will suck up more than half the offering over time. It will likely get placed...

Travis Lundy

Okuma Corp Placement: Strong Financial Performance in Recent Period

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG, and others plan to sell $104m of Okuma Corp stock, a significant deal representing 13.2 days of ADV and 6.4% of...

Hong Jie Seow

Ohayo Japan | US Markets Steady as Fed Decision Takes Center Stage

US equities mixed as JPMorgan weighs on Dow; Markets eyeing Wednesday's rate decision; Okuma faces near-term pressure from share sale but long...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] CORRECTION: Advance Look at Mar27 Nikkei 225 Rebal; Info & Comms Rules The Roost

A misread of the Sep26 rebal announcement led me down a wrong path. The path is now corrected, but the path is still shrouded in fog. That fog may...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Offering] Significant Financial Crossholder Selldown in Okuma (6103)

The Okuma secondary offering is large, but there is a buyback which will suck up more than half the offering over time. It will likely get placed...

Travis Lundy

Okuma Corp Placement: Strong Financial Performance in Recent Period

​Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG, and others plan to sell $104m of Okuma Corp stock, a significant deal representing 13.2 days of ADV and 6.4% of...

Hong Jie Seow

Ohayo Japan | US Markets Steady as Fed Decision Takes Center Stage

​US equities mixed as JPMorgan weighs on Dow; Markets eyeing Wednesday's rate decision; Okuma faces near-term pressure from share sale but long...

Mark Chadwick

[Quiddity Index] CORRECTION: Advance Look at Mar27 Nikkei 225 Rebal; Info & Comms Rules The Roost

A misread of the Sep26 rebal announcement led me down a wrong path. The path is now corrected, but the path is still shrouded in fog. That fog may...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Advance Look at March 2027 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions - The 3rd DELETE Is Tough

The Sep26 Nikkei 225 results are announced. That means we can have a pretty good look at what happens in March 2027 (though the choice of Capcom vs...

Travis Lundy

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, MUFG, and others plan to sell $104m of Okuma Corp stock, a significant deal representing 13.2 days of ADV and 6.4% of...

US equities mixed as JPMorgan weighs on Dow; Markets eyeing Wednesday's rate decision; Okuma faces near-term pressure from share sale but long...