IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> has announced that MBK has secured the two highest risk approvals (US CFIUS and China SAMR). </li>
<li>The remaining approval (Japan) should be obtained by mid-February. However, the offer must now contend with twin headwinds of a bull market and upgraded guidance. </li>
<li>While MBK’s improving deal economics support a bump, several mitigating factors (such as deal fatigue and no competing bid) suggest a low probability of a bump.   </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has announced that MBK has secured the two highest risk approvals (US CFIUS and China SAMR). 
The remaining approval (Japan) should be obtained by mid-February. However, the offer must now contend with twin headwinds of a bull market and upgraded guidance. 
While MBK’s improving deal economics support a bump, several mitigating factors (such as deal fatigue and no competing bid) suggest a low probability of a bump.   


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>A once-again 'Young Stock' with massive liquidity is set to challenge traditional entry rules, leveraging a recent precedent to secure a spot in the benchmark index.</li>
<li>The committee's focus remains on raising the index's liquidity floor, resulting in a systemic removal of legacy constituents from various industrial sectors.</li>
<li>Sector balance is another priority, driving the modernization of segments and correcting lopsided underrepresentation of Japanese sectors on the index.</li>
</ul>


A once-again 'Young Stock' with massive liquidity is set to challenge traditional entry rules, leveraging a recent precedent to secure a spot in the benchmark index.
The committee's focus remains on raising the index's liquidity floor, resulting in a systemic removal of legacy constituents from various industrial sectors.
Sector balance is another priority, driving the modernization of segments and correcting lopsided underrepresentation of Japanese sectors on the index.


2026 NK 225 Reconstitution Forecast: Kioxia’s "Young Stock" Ascendance & The Legacy Materials Purge

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. </li>
<li>However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. </li>
<li>I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. 
However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. 
I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends in 4 weeks. Depending on the index committee discretion, there could be 1-3 changes at the rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s index weight is currently above 10% and that will result in capping. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> avoid capping for now.</li>
<li>The capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> results in funding inflows for all the index constituents, though the impact tops out at 0.4x ADV.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends in 4 weeks. Depending on the index committee discretion, there could be 1-3 changes at the rebalance.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s index weight is currently above 10% and that will result in capping. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) avoid capping for now.
The capping for Advantest Corp (6857 JP) results in funding inflows for all the index constituents, though the impact tops out at 0.4x ADV.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Potential Adds, Deletes, Capping & Other Changes

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, this week will probably see the last of the big listings in Asia this year</li>
<li>On the placements front, Swiggy was the main deal in the market. There are still a few lockup expiries left for 2025.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, this week will probably see the last of the big listings in Asia this year
On the placements front, Swiggy was the main deal in the market. There are still a few lockup expiries left for 2025.


ECM Weekly (15 December 2025) - SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Novosense, JD Industrial Meesho, Cidi, Swiggy

Japan

OKUMA Corporation manufactures machine tools and other industrial machinery. The Company produces computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools including lathes, machining centers (MCs), grinders, and drilling machines.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Okuma Corp (6103 JP)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

The precondition should be satisfied soon. While the re-rating of peers and upgraded guidance have improved MBK’s deal economics, several...

Arun George

2026 NK 225 Reconstitution Forecast: Kioxia’s "Young Stock" Ascendance & The Legacy Materials Purge

A new 'Young Stock' with high liquidity challenges entry rules, as index committee focuses on raising liquidity floor and balancing sectors.

Jay Cameron

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

The recent interest and move higher in metals means a change in expected Nikkei 225 DELETE. And the recent move higher in USDJPY and earnings means...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Potential Adds, Deletes, Capping & Other Changes

There could 1-3 changes for the NKY in March. Advantest will be capped in March and could be capped in September too. Passives need to trade...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (15 December 2025) - SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Novosense, JD Industrial Meesho, Cidi, Swiggy

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Twin Headwinds as Chinese and US Approvals Secured

The precondition should be satisfied soon. While the re-rating of peers and upgraded guidance have improved MBK’s deal economics, several...

Arun George

2026 NK 225 Reconstitution Forecast: Kioxia’s "Young Stock" Ascendance & The Legacy Materials Purge

​A new 'Young Stock' with high liquidity challenges entry rules, as index committee focuses on raising liquidity floor and balancing sectors.

Jay Cameron

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

The recent interest and move higher in metals means a change in expected Nikkei 225 DELETE. And the recent move higher in USDJPY and earnings means...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Potential Adds, Deletes, Capping & Other Changes

There could 1-3 changes for the NKY in March. Advantest will be capped in March and could be capped in September too. Passives need to trade...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (15 December 2025) - SBI Shinsei, NS Group, Novosense, JD Industrial Meesho, Cidi, Swiggy

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

A new 'Young Stock' with high liquidity challenges entry rules, as index committee focuses on raising liquidity floor and balancing sectors.