External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Taylor Collison

Taylor Collison

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Taylor Collison is a leading financial services firm, providing advice & wealth creation strategies to private & institutional investors and corporate clients throughout Australia. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>With upsized debt funding in place, fund 1 now guaranteed to achieve run-off, a pipeline of secondary buyers building, and maturing case book, OBL is in a sound position to pursue organic, M&amp;A and opportunistic capital management strategies.</li><li>This is despite a slower invoicing and commitments quarter, where corporate cash and receivables reduced by $46.2m.</li><li>The emergence of secondary buyers and insurers willing to underwrite OBL’s capital and expected profits is testament to the underwriting standards and the global origination platform that the business has created.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

With upsized debt funding in place, fund 1 now guaranteed to achieve run-off, a pipeline of secondary buyers building, and maturing case book, OBL is in a sound position to pursue organic, M&amp;A and opportunistic capital management strategies.This is despite a slower invoicing and commitments quarter, where corporate cash and receivables reduced by $46.2m.The emergence of secondary buyers and insurers willing to underwrite OBL’s capital and expected profits is testament to the underwriting standards and the global origination platform that the business has created.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Omni Bridgeway Limited (OBL) - 1Q23 Investment Update

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Volatile stock prices could mean one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> in the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> has spiked in the last few weeks and there could be short covering ahead of implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


Volatile stock prices could mean one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the December rebalance.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) could replace Lendlease Group (LLC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index, while Monadelphous (MND AU) could replace St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200.
Short interest on St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) has spiked in the last few weeks and there could be short covering ahead of implementation of the changes.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers, BHP, Newcrest Mining, Nextdc, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 4th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers, BHP, Newcrest Mining, Nextdc, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 4th): Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> at A$9/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.</li>
</ul>


A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Origin Energy (ORG AU) at A$9/share in cash.
The offer values Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.
There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

<ul>
<li>We see one potential change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and two potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> at the December rebalance, though some stocks are close to the cutoffs.</li>
<li>The potential passive buying on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> adds will exceed 11 days of ADV while the impact on the other stocks ranges from 1.5-4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>Most stocks have been moving the right way and there will be pre-positions built up on some of the stocks. Shorts have been active on a few names too.</li>
</ul>


We see one potential change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and two potential changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 at the December rebalance, though some stocks are close to the cutoffs.
The potential passive buying on the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) adds will exceed 11 days of ADV while the impact on the other stocks ranges from 1.5-4 days of ADV.
Most stocks have been moving the right way and there will be pre-positions built up on some of the stocks. Shorts have been active on a few names too.


S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Moving the Right Way

Australia

Omni Bridgeway Limited provides investment management services. The Company offers claims securitization, litigation, funding, legal recovery, trading, and other related solutions. Omni Bridgeway serves customer worldwide.

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Omni Bridgeway (OBL AU)

Omni Bridgeway Limited (OBL) - 1Q23 Investment Update

With upsized debt funding in place, fund 1 now guaranteed to achieve run-off, a pipeline of secondary buyers building, and maturing case book

Taylor Collison

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

With 3 days left in the review period, we forecast one change each for the ASX50 & ASX200 indices. The largest impact of passive trading will be on...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 4th): Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers, BHP, Newcrest...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Moving the Right Way

We see 1 change for the ASX50 and 2 for the ASX200. Impact on the ASX200 adds is high. There is pre-positioning on the long & short side and the...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Omni Bridgeway Limited (OBL) - 1Q23 Investment Update

With upsized debt funding in place, fund 1 now guaranteed to achieve run-off, a pipeline of secondary buyers building, and maturing case book

Taylor Collison

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

With 3 days left in the review period, we forecast one change each for the ASX50 & ASX200 indices. The largest impact of passive trading will be on...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 4th): Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Telstra, Macquarie, Wesfarmers, BHP, Newcrest...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Moving the Right Way

We see 1 change for the ASX50 and 2 for the ASX200. Impact on the ASX200 adds is high. There is pre-positioning on the long & short side and the...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Shrinking Number of Changes in Dec

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Moving the Right Way