Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure. From a macro perspective, despite some mild price deterioration recently on major indexes around the globe, our outlook remains unchanged and we remain neutral yet constructive overall. Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we continue to see attractive opportunities in many countries/regions such as Japan, China (Shanghai Composite), Europe, India, and Canada, to name a few.

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Shortly after publishing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/engine-versus-exxon-activist-hedge-fund-s-proxy-fight-win-reverberates-through-big-oil-boardrooms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52318" rel="noopener">Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms</a>, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:<ol>
<li>
Carbon Footprints: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).</li>
<li>
Climate Policies: Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.</li>
<li>
Emissions Targets: Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.</li>
<li>
Capital Investment: How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.</li>
</ol>

Shortly after publishing Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:

Carbon Footprints: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).

Climate Policies: Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.

Emissions Targets: Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.

Capital Investment: How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.


Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Austria

OMV AG explores for and refines crude oil and natural gas.  The Company sells refined products through gas stations and distributors.  The Company also manufactures plastics such as polyolefins and technical plastics.  Customers are in the automotive, electrical, and construction industries.

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OMV AG (OMV AV)

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Sector Improving -- Buying Reliance Industries Ltd, Several Others

Crude oil prices display bullish short-term reversals, resulting in bullish price and RS reversals for global Energy stocks -- add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

A quick overview of the carbon footprints and climate policies of 50 of the world's largest oil stocks (mainly Asia Pacific, Americas, and Europe...

Kyle Rudden

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

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