Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.</li><li>Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.</li><li>High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Guangzhou's latest policy eases home purchasing restrictions for foreigners, aiming to invigorate the market.Post price cap removal, higher-tier cities are experiencing fervent bidding, while lower-tier cities have lagged behind, underscoring the market bidding mechanism’s role in fostering supply-demand equilibrium.High-frequency data reveals that new home sales volume has dipped from June’s peak, yet the secondary market holds firm. Daily avg. transactions for new home sales in 30 major cities have seen a 21% decline, vs. an 11% increase for secondary sales in 17 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

<ul><li>Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with that in SH and SZ.</li><li>This was well expected by market and our previous report. Based on our policy relaxation timetable, we think BJ, SZ and SH still have room to relax on purchase restrictions.</li><li>High-frequency data suggests a more pronounced recovery near the end of June, mainly driven by the combined effects of policy incentives, centralized online registration in mid-year and the low base. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with that in SH and SZ.This was well expected by market and our previous report. Based on our policy relaxation timetable, we think BJ, SZ and SH still have room to relax on purchase restrictions.High-frequency data suggests a more pronounced recovery near the end of June, mainly driven by the combined effects of policy incentives, centralized online registration in mid-year and the low base. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Beijing Further Relaxed, Policy Easing Bore Fruit in Shanghai

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Midea Real Estate Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 25 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).</li>
<li>The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).</li>
<li>Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


On 25 June, Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) disclosed an in-specie distribution of its PD&amp;S business through a scrip or cash (HK$5.90 per share, 57.33% premium to undisturbed price).
The key condition will be approval of the distribution by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection).
Midea RE will remain listed with an asset-light retained business, which is estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The Group's estimated value is HK$7.83, a 17.6% upside to the last close.


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

China

Onewo Inc. operates as a property management service provider. The Company operates and manages residential communities, workspaces, public premises, and others. Onewo provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Onewo (2602 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Property - Weekly Highlight: Downside Pressure in Jul-Aug

For stocks, we recommend asset-light companies benefiting from the existing market such as CR MixC, Poly Services, Binjiang Services, Onewo, BEKE...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Property - Weekly Highlight: Beijing Further Relaxed, Policy Easing Bore Fruit in Shanghai

Beijing further relaxed its property policy by cutting down payment ratio by 10- 15ppt and mortgage rate by 30-55 bps (Figure 9), aligning with...

CMB International

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): An In-Specie Distribution to Unlock Value

After the distribution of the asset-heavy business, Midea RE will remain listed as an asset-light business, estimated to be worth HK$1.93. The...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)