Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent, Meituan, HKEx.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.</li><li>This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.</li><li>Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Several cities are applying new pricing mechanisms for homes for sale by using usable GFA rather than total GFA as the pricing base, but the total home price remains unchanged, which results in a higher ASP.This would not boost sales in short term but the improved transparency should benefit the industry in the long term, in our view.Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level that makes cap rate appear attractive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Onewo's 1H24 earnings missed market expectation, but the company raised dividend payout ratio from 30% to 100% of core net profit (55% interim div + 45% special div.), representing a div yield of 9.1% based on the closing price on 22 Aug assuming no special dividend payout in the full year.</li><li>1H24 revenue was up 9.6% YoY, gross margin (GPM) contracted by 1.4 ppt to 13.6%, and net profit decreased by 23% YoY. Our key findings are: 1) Residential PM and Bpaas provided crucial support to the company despite challenging industry conditions.</li><li>2) Commercial PM faced challenges in 1H24, with revenue growth accompanied by a decline in gross margin, largely due to price cuts to attract customers and becoming a major source of ARs in a weak economic environment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Onewo's 1H24 earnings missed market expectation, but the company raised dividend payout ratio from 30% to 100% of core net profit (55% interim div + 45% special div.), representing a div yield of 9.1% based on the closing price on 22 Aug assuming no special dividend payout in the full year.1H24 revenue was up 9.6% YoY, gross margin (GPM) contracted by 1.4 ppt to 13.6%, and net profit decreased by 23% YoY. Our key findings are: 1) Residential PM and Bpaas provided crucial support to the company despite challenging industry conditions.2) Commercial PM faced challenges in 1H24, with revenue growth accompanied by a decline in gross margin, largely due to price cuts to attract customers and becoming a major source of ARs in a weak economic environment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Onewo (2602 HK) - 1H24 Missed, Raised Div. Payout Again to 100% of Core Net Profit

<ul><li>NBS data in 7M24 weakened as the market expected. REI decline widened to - 10.2% from -10.1% in 6M24.</li><li>In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land purchase costs performed better (affected c.90% of total REI) with their declines only widened 0.1ppt and narrowed 4.7ppt respectively.</li><li>We estimate the worse REI data may be caused by material price declines that resulted in lower construction cost per sqm under construction (Figure 2). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS data in 7M24 weakened as the market expected. REI decline widened to - 10.2% from -10.1% in 6M24.In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land purchase costs performed better (affected c.90% of total REI) with their declines only widened 0.1ppt and narrowed 4.7ppt respectively.We estimate the worse REI data may be caused by material price declines that resulted in lower construction cost per sqm under construction (Figure 2). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - NBS 7M24: REI Decline Widened but Its Components All Performed Better, Why?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
We expect 33 of the 38 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect while we expect 27 of the 29 HSCI deletions to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Since the start of the calendar year, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased in 22 of the 27 HSCI deletions that will also be removed from Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

China

Onewo Inc. operates as a property management service provider. The Company operates and manages residential communities, workspaces, public premises, and others. Onewo provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Onewo (2602 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 13th): $1.5bn Inflows into Baba Post Inclusion

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, ICBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Widen in Sep

Policy on refinancing of mortgages is under discussion, and we think it may lift purchasing sentiment only if mortgage rates are lowered to a level...

CMB International

Onewo (2602 HK) - 1H24 Missed, Raised Div. Payout Again to 100% of Core Net Profit

Onewo's 1H24 earnings missed market expectation, but the company raised dividend payout ratio from 30% to 100% of core net profit (55% interim div...

CMB International

Property - NBS 7M24: REI Decline Widened but Its Components All Performed Better, Why?

In terms of monthly data in July, the decline in REI widened by 0.7ppt to -10.8% from -10.1% in June while both GFA under construction and land...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance: 38 Adds, 29 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 38 adds and 29 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518. There will be a lot of...

Brian Freitas

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