Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20200903-1214159/1214159_2020.09.04-quarta-200.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> and the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>.Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a> was a surprise among the inclusions and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a> was a surprise among the deletions.Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.Short interest is elevated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.The inclusions are Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU), Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU), Westgold Resources (WGX AU) and Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) and the exclusions are Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), New Hope Corp (NHC AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU) was a surprise among the inclusions and Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) was a surprise among the deletions.Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.Short interest is elevated on New Hope Corp (NHC AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 4 September. The changes are effective at the close of trading on 18 September and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on that day.The data cutoff for the September review is 21 August.We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> being included in the index and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a> being excluded from the index.Sitting right at the edge of the buffer zone, there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> being included and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a> being excluded.

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 4 September. The changes are effective at the close of trading on 18 September and passive funds will need to complete their rebalancing activity at or by the close on that day.The data cutoff for the September review is 21 August.We see a high probability of Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) being included in the index and of Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) and oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU) being excluded from the index.Sitting right at the edge of the buffer zone, there is a lower probability of Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU) and Westgold Resources (WGX AU) being included and Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Western Areas (WSA AU) being excluded.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview - Couple of High Probability Changes; Couple on the Cusp

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
On the 31 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10924:1" rel="noopener">Clear Media Ltd (100 HK)</a>-management-led Ever Harmonic <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0331/2020033100243.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made</a> a voluntary cash offer for Clear at HK$7.12/share, a 50.21% premium to the last close of HK$4.74, and a ~87% premium if averaging the closing price for 30 days prior to the 29 November <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1129/2019112901088.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> last year, that Clear's controlling shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-channel-outdoor-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5745:1" rel="noopener">Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US)</a>, with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake.
</div>
<div>
The Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances. CCO has given an irrevocable to tender in their 50.91% holding. The Offer Price is Final. Dividends declared will be netted although none have been declared. 
The Composite Document is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0427/2020042700213.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a> this morning. The First Close is the 18 May. CCO is required to tender within 7 business days, wherein the Offer will turn unconditional.
Payment is 7 business days thereafter, suggesting the consideration to be paid under the Offer will be made on or before the 19 May. 
</div>
<div>
More below the fold.
</div>


On the 31 March, Clear Media Ltd (100 HK)-management-led Ever Harmonic made a voluntary cash offer for Clear at HK$7.12/share, a 50.21% premium to the last close of HK$4.74, and a ~87% premium if averaging the closing price for 30 days prior to the 29 November announcement last year, that Clear's controlling shareholder, Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US), with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake.


The Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances. CCO has given an irrevocable to tender in their 50.91% holding. The Offer Price is Final. Dividends declared will be netted although none have been declared. 
The Composite Document is out this morning. The First Close is the 18 May. CCO is required to tender within 7 business days, wherein the Offer will turn unconditional.
Payment is 7 business days thereafter, suggesting the consideration to be paid under the Offer will be made on or before the 19 May. 


More below the fold.


Clear Media: Comp Doc Out. Done Deal. Payment 19 May

<div>
After four months of negotiation, a firm Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10924:1" rel="noopener">Clear Media Ltd (100 HK)</a> has been announced.
In my short-lived insight yesterday (<a href="https://skr.ma/f5qLG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clear Media: Will Minorities Now Get Robbed?</a>), I discussed that on the 29 November last year, Clear <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1129/2019112901088.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that its controlling shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-channel-outdoor-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5745:1" rel="noopener">Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US)</a>, with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake.
This was followed by the standard monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, until yesterday, when Clear was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0330/2020033000185.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pending the release of an announcement under the Takeovers Code.
</div>
<div>
This morning Clear-management-lead Ever Harmonic has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0331/2020033100243.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made</a> a voluntary cash offer for Clear at HK$7.12/share, a 50.21% premium to the last close of HK$4.74, but more like a 78% premium if using my estimated undisturbed price back in late November.
CCO has given an irrevocable to tender in their 50.91% holding. The Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances.
The Offer Price is Final. Dividends declared will be netted. Clear has not declared any dividends at the time of this Offer announcement.
More below the fold.
</div>


After four months of negotiation, a firm Offer for Clear Media Ltd (100 HK) has been announced.
In my short-lived insight yesterday (Clear Media: Will Minorities Now Get Robbed?), I discussed that on the 29 November last year, Clear announced that its controlling shareholder, Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US), with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake.
This was followed by the standard monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, until yesterday, when Clear was suspended pending the release of an announcement under the Takeovers Code.


This morning Clear-management-lead Ever Harmonic has made a voluntary cash offer for Clear at HK$7.12/share, a 50.21% premium to the last close of HK$4.74, but more like a 78% premium if using my estimated undisturbed price back in late November.
CCO has given an irrevocable to tender in their 50.91% holding. The Offer is conditional on 50.1% acceptances.
The Offer Price is Final. Dividends declared will be netted. Clear has not declared any dividends at the time of this Offer announcement.
More below the fold.


Clear Media: Done Deal From Alibaba & Co.

Back on the 29 November last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10924:1" rel="noopener">Clear Media Ltd (100 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/1129/2019112901088.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that its controlling shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clear-channel-outdoor-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5745:1" rel="noopener">Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US)</a>, with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake. Should the entire stake be sold, an unconditional mandatory tender offer would be triggered.
This was followed by the standard monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, until today, when Clear was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0330/2020033000185.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pending the release of an announcement under the Takeovers Code.
The undisturbed price is more like HK$4, not HK$4.74 at the time of the November announcement - shares had increased 18% in the preceding four trading days prior to 29 Nov.  Clear Media closed last Friday at $5.10/share.
Clear announced FY19 results on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0318/2020031801567.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">18 March</a>, highlighting a 56.6% decrease in EBITDA to RMB311.4mn (if not adopting HKFRS 106); and a net loss of RMB86.9mn compared to a profit of RMB220.8mn in FY8.
The company said it expected a further reduction in China’s economic growth in 2020 based on the effects of Covid-19, which would negatively impact customers’ advertising spend and reduce demand for advertising space.
CCO has held its take since Clear's listing in December 2001, and has been approached in the past. In times of crisis, deals get done.
As always, more below the fold.

Back on the 29 November last year, Clear Media Ltd (100 HK) announced that its controlling shareholder, Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US), with 50.91% of the company, was conducting a strategic review of its stake. Should the entire stake be sold, an unconditional mandatory tender offer would be triggered.
This was followed by the standard monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, until today, when Clear was suspended pending the release of an announcement under the Takeovers Code.
The undisturbed price is more like HK$4, not HK$4.74 at the time of the November announcement - shares had increased 18% in the preceding four trading days prior to 29 Nov.  Clear Media closed last Friday at $5.10/share.
Clear announced FY19 results on the 18 March, highlighting a 56.6% decrease in EBITDA to RMB311.4mn (if not adopting HKFRS 106); and a net loss of RMB86.9mn compared to a profit of RMB220.8mn in FY8.
The company said it expected a further reduction in China’s economic growth in 2020 based on the effects of Covid-19, which would negatively impact customers’ advertising spend and reduce demand for advertising space.
CCO has held its take since Clear's listing in December 2001, and has been approached in the past. In times of crisis, deals get done.
As always, more below the fold.

Clear Media: Will Minorities Now Get Robbed?

Australia

oOh!media Ltd is a media company. The Company provides advertising and marketing solutions, campaign production, campaign management, creative and digital solutions.

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oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

SP Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the SP/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review.

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview - Couple of High Probability Changes; Couple on the Cusp

S&P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 4 September. The...

Brian Freitas

Clear Media: Comp Doc Out. Done Deal. Payment 19 May

On the 31 March, Clear Media Ltd (100 HK)-management-led Ever Harmonic made a voluntary cash offer for Clear at HK$7.12/share, a 50.21% premium to...

David Blennerhassett

Clear Media: Done Deal From Alibaba & Co.

After four months of negotiation, a firm Offer for Clear Media Ltd (100 HK) has been announced. In my short-lived insight yesterday (Clear Media:...

David Blennerhassett

Clear Media: Will Minorities Now Get Robbed?

Back on the 29 November last year, Clear Media Ltd (100 HK) announced that its controlling shareholder, Clear Channel Outdoor Cl A (CCO US), with...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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