Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>President Donald Trump announced the Stargate Project, a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.</li>
<li>Elon Musk is miffed, Microsoft says they "approved" the project and have a new Right of First Refusal agreement in place with OpenAI. </li>
<li>Stargate is exclusively for OpenAI and the press release states that its mission is to provide a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies.</li>
</ul>


President Donald Trump announced the Stargate Project, a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.
Elon Musk is miffed, Microsoft says they "approved" the project and have a new Right of First Refusal agreement in place with OpenAI. 
Stargate is exclusively for OpenAI and the press release states that its mission is to provide a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies.


Stargate. It's Not All About You Microsoft. Or You Either Elon

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Strawberry was a breakthrough. Some people ask, “What’s the big deal?” but feasibly, there is a new scaling law working in tandem with training, and that’s the Chain of Thought / Inference.</li><li>The chart below is a bit confusing, but the conclusion is the longer the model “thinks,” the better the answer.</li><li>The new model has another log-linear scaling law. It pretty much computes, and the <a href="http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html?ref=blog.heim.xyz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bitter Lesson</a> wins again.</li></ul>

Strawberry was a breakthrough. Some people ask, “What’s the big deal?” but feasibly, there is a new scaling law working in tandem with training, and that’s the Chain of Thought / Inference.The chart below is a bit confusing, but the conclusion is the longer the model “thinks,” the better the answer.The new model has another log-linear scaling law. It pretty much computes, and the Bitter Lesson wins again.

<ul><li>If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.</li><li>I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.</li><li>Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.</li></ul>

If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.

<ul>
<li>What inning is AI in?</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">history is a guide</a>, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.</li>
<li>Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.</li>
</ul>


What inning is AI in?
If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.


AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

<ul>
<li>After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble</li>
<li>While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees</li>
<li>There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.</li>
</ul>


After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble
While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees
There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.


NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

United States

OpenAI, L.P. operates as a software company. The Company specializes in AI research and deployment that aims to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. OpenAI serves customers worldwide.

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OpenAI (2193707D US)

Stargate. It's Not All About You Microsoft. Or You Either Elon

Stargate is effectively positioning Open AI as a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies.Yikes, how did...

William Keating

ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory

Strawberry was a breakthrough. Some people ask, “What’s the big deal?” but feasibly, there is a new scaling law working in tandem with training,...

Fabricated Knowledge

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

What inning is AI in? If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing...

Fabricated Knowledge

NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive...

William Keating

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